Mutua Madrid Open Men’s Singles Final
Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem
After surprising betting websites with his straight set victory over Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal looks to be on his way to another title as he’ll be facing a familiar opponent he defeated in the Barcelona Open final just two weeks ago.
No disrespect for Dominic Thiem who has been on fire in recent weeks, but betting odds heavily favour the King of Clay who is just virtually untouchable on this surface.
Nadal is indeed playing his best tennis since 2013, and it will take a lot from the Austrian to stage a live betting shock at Caja Magica.
The Spaniard is currently on a 14-match winning run and his victory over Djokovic—which ended his three-year losing streak against the Serb—will certainly put him in high spirits in the final.
His current form also makes him a more dangerous opponent. Not only is he serving great in the tournament, but his blistering forehand also gives him a formidable weapon he can use. Not to mention his ability to show variety in his game, as seen in his recent games where he made a few drop shots to throw off his opponents.
Sure enough, Thiem isn’t without a fighting chance. After all, he already defeated the four-time Madrid Open champion once in 2016 in a three-set semi-final on the clay courts of Buenos Aires.
The Austrian’s powerful backhand and forehand can also deal Nadal some damage, but he needs to serve well if he wants to disrupt him and avoid another straight set defeat in the hands of the Spaniard.
There’s a lot at stake for both players. A Nadal victory will see him back into the top four. It will also be his 30th Masters 1000 titles which would equal Djokovic’s haul.
Meanwhile, if Thiem pulls off a miracle and upsets Nadal, he will have his first Masters 1000 title and rise to sixth in the rankings – a new career-high for him.
There’s no doubt that Thiem can provide Nadal with some challenge if he plays well, so a bet on him on Game Handicap +5.00 @ 1.80 might look profitable. However, it’s hard to see Rafa losing this one, so choosing Nadal Asian Handicap -1.50 @ 1.57 seems a better move.
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Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
