World Cup 2022: Italy Dread a Recurring Nightmare

Italy vs North Macedonia

Italy welcome the Republic of North Macedonia to Palermo on Thursday in a winner-takes-all play-off clash in search of a place at World Cup 2022.

The victors will take on the winners of a clash between Portugal and Turkey in the Path C final which is scheduled for Tuesday 29^th March. And that shows the size of the task facing Italy who are desperate to avoid a repeat of the humiliation in failing to qualify for Russia 2018.    

This game brings together two nations at the opposite ends of the food chain as the visitors are 61 places behind Italy in the latest FIFA rankings at 67^th.

And so here at SBOTOP, we’re backing the sixth-placed Azzurri to come through, and then take their chance against a dangerous Turkey or the 2016 European champions.  

Talking Points

Italy prepare the big guns

Head coach Roberto Mancini was a hero when the Azzurri won Euro 2020 in a penalty shootout over England and the memory of their disastrous 2018 World Cup qualification campaign was forgotten. Well, almost.

Draws at home to Switzerland and away to Northern Ireland left Italy short of points and now they are back in a sudden death scenario, so Mancini is calling on some of his biggest names to see this job through.

Lorenzo Insigne’s Napoli are in a four-way race for the 2021/22 Scudetto and the forward is banging in form and will have a big part to play on Thursday.

The boss has brought back the granite through the Juventus centre-back pairing of Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci in front of colossal keeper Gianluigi Donnarumma.

With Jorginho, Manuel Locatelli, and Nicola Barella in midfield and Lazio hitman Ciro Immobile up front, this is a team of superstars fresh in the memory of lifting the European title. 

So what has gone wrong?

Italy would have been in among my hot picks for Qatar 2022 if they had kicked on from Euro 2020. But having failed to break through Northern Ireland’s stiff resistance, they finished two points behind Switzerland and now their destiny is in the balance.

The Azzurri have never failed to qualify for the World Cup twice in succession, last missing out in 1958 (before 2018) and promptly qualifying in 1962.

With just two wins in seven games, the Azzurri have lost momentum. And now is the time to find it again or that worst nightmare will become a reality.

North Macedonia’s second chance 

We expect the World Cup 2022 highlights to be a story of attack versus defence for much of the game. But make no mistake, Blagoja Milesvski’s side are not here to make up the numbers, having tasted finals football for the first time at Euro 2020.

North Macedonia are unbeaten in four games away from home and they finished strongly with a 5-0 win against Armenia and then a 3-1 victory over Iceland.

Wing-back Ezgjan Alioski is well-known to Leeds United fans having represented the Whites for four superb seasons in the Championship and Premier League. He scored 21 times in 161 games and was a key figure in Leeds’ return to the top-flight.

And he was on target to send North Macedonia on their way to victory over Iceland, while Napoli midfielder Elif Elmas scored a second-half brace.

Having qualified for their first ever tournament at Euro 2020 and despite failing to pick up a single point, they won many fans and are hungry for more success.

North Macedonia even shocked Germany with a 2-1 win which helped them to secure second place as the Germans ran away with the group, so Italy must beware.

History

As four-time World Cup winners and twice European champions, Italy are streets ahead of North Macedonia in terms of history, but that won’t help the Azzurri on Thursday. 

The two teams have met twice before. In 2016, Italy won the away leg 3-2 and drew at home 1-1 in their infamously failed attempt to qualify for Russia 2018.    

Recent form is comparable too. Italy have won two, drawn three, and lost one of the last six games, while North Macedonia have won three, drawn two, and lost one.

Betting Tips

The pre-match World Cup 2022 betting odds are squarely behind a home win. Italy are at 1.20 to win, the draw is at 5.99, and a North Macedonia win is at 10.12.

This is a nervy situation for the Azzurri to be in and the thought of failure will be unbearable for their fans, but I think they will hold their nerve.   A 2-0 win is the most likely result at odds of 4.45, while 3-0 is at 5.80. But if they reach halftime at 0-0, you will be able to cut the tension in Palermo with a knife.

 

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