The World Cup 2022 group stage is about to come to a close, and the round of 16 is slowly taking shape.
With defending champions France the only team to qualify for the round of 16 thus far, there are still a lot of teams who have a chance to go through, and there are several scenarios that can see them reach the next round.
Read on below as SBOTOP runs through all the different ways each team can make it through to the knockout stage.
Group A
The Netherlands and Ecuador are tied with four points – with the two tied on goal difference, the Dutch currently hold the tiebreaker after winning their match – while Senegal are on three points. Hosts Qatar are already eliminated.
The Dutch will go through if they win or draw against Qatar. They could also lose and still qualify if Ecuador beat Senegal.
As for Ecuador, a win or draw would also see them through to the round of 16. They could also lose and still qualify, but only if the Netherlands also lose and they have the edge in the tiebreaker. And if both teams win, the tiebreakers would again take effect to determine who finishes top.
Finally, Senegal’s task is simple: beat Ecuador and they go through. A draw would also see them through if the Netherlands lose and they win the tiebreaker.
Group B
England currently top the table with four points, followed by Iran with three. The USA have two points, while Wales are bottom with one point.
The Three Lions are relatively safe, with a heavy defeat (four or more goals) to Wales the only way they can be eliminated. A win will see them through as group winners. They could also still top the group with a draw if Iran don’t win or the US don’t win by at least four goals.
Iran will finish in the top two by beating the USA, and they will win the group if England don’t win. A draw for Iran will also be enough if Wales don’t win.
The USA have a straightforward task: beat Iran to go through. They can also finish top if they win and England lose.
As for Wales, they must win against England, then hope Iran and USA draw, to finish in the top two. If either USA or Iran win, Wales will need to beat England by four or more goals to finish second ahead of them.
Group C
Poland are in pole position in Group C with four points, while Argentina and Saudi Arabia each have three. Mexico are last with one.
Poland just need a draw against Argentina to qualify. They will win the group with a win, or with a draw if Saudi Arabia fail to win. The Poles could still go through if they lose by no more than three goals and Saudi Arabia draw, but it will go down to the tiebreakers. However, if Poland lose and Saudi Arabia win, Poland are out.
Argentina need a win to guarantee qualification, and they will top the group if Saudi Arabia don’t win. If both Argentina and Saudi Arabia win, top spot will go down to tiebreakers.
If Argentina draw, they can still qualify if Saudi Arabia also draw. An Argentina draw and Saudi Arabia win would knock the Argentines out. Argentina also can’t qualify with a defeat.
Saudi Arabia will go through with a win over Mexico and will win the group if Poland and Argentina draw. If Saudi Arabia draw, they can still qualify if Argentina lose. They could also still finish second with a draw if Poland lose by four or more goals.
Mexico must beat Saudi Arabia to stand any chance of qualifying, and they will need to win by four or more goals to guarantee a top-two finish.
If both Poland and Mexico win, Mexico will go through in second. But if Poland lose and Mexico win, it will go down to tiebreakers, although Mexico have a four-goal deficit in goal difference.
If Poland and Argentina draw and Mexico win, Mexico would need to win by at least three goals in order to trigger a tiebreaker. And if Mexico win by four or more goals, Mexico would finish second over Argentina.
Group D
Finally, a somewhat more straightforward group. France are the first team to secure their last-16 spot with two wins in two. Australia are second with three points, while Denmark and Tunisia each have one.
France will finish top if they avoid defeat against Tunisia, or if Australia don’t beat Denmark. There’s still a chance Les Bleus drop to second if they lose and Australia win, but the Socceroos also have to overturn a six-goal deficit in goal difference to do so.
Australia will also be assured a top-two spot if they beat Denmark or if Tunisia don’t beat France. If Australia only draw and Tunisia win, Australia are out via goal difference. Australia also can’t qualify if they lose.
Denmark must beat Australia, and they will finish second if Tunisia don’t win. If both Denmark and Tunisia win, tiebreakers will decide who finishes second.
And as for Tunisia, they must win and hope Australia and Denmark draw. Tunisia cannot qualify if Australia win.
Group E
Group E is still a free-for-all, with all four teams still alive. Spain are top with four points, Japan and Costa Rica are tied with three, and Germany are bottom of the group with one point.
Spain only need a draw against Japan to qualify, but they will top the group with a win or if Costa Rica fail to win.
It is also possible Spain get knocked out if they lose, but that is only realistic if Costa Rica can beat Germany. A Costa Rica-Germany draw and Germany win are still likely to see Spain through.
Japan will go through if they beat Spain and will top the group if Costa Rica don’t win. If both Japan and Costa Rica win, it will go down to tiebreakers, which Japan have the significant advantage over.
If Japan can only draw with Spain, they must hope Costa Rica also draw. If Costa Rica win, Japan are out. If Germany beat Costa Rica by more than one goal, though, Japan are through.
Costa Rica will qualify if they beat Germany and will top the group if Japan and Spain draw. If Costa Rica draw, they must hope Japan lose. That’s because even if Japan beat Spain, it would take a shocking Spain defeat for Costa Rica to claw back their goal difference disadvantage. Costa Rica also can’t qualify if both games are draws, or if they lose.
And last but not least, Germany. The DFB Team must defeat Costa Rica to stand any chance of going through. A win of eight goals or more would secure qualification, although the World Cup 2022 odds of that happening seem unlikely.
If Germany and Spain win, Germany finish second. But if Germany win and Spain lose, second place will go to tiebreakers, which Germany are unlikely to overturn.
There are also various scenarios if Germany win and Japan-Spain is a draw. But Germany will be rooting for a goalless draw between Japan and Spain, which will see them through with any win. And if Germany win by two or more goals, they would finish second on goal difference.
Group F
With Canada eliminated, just three teams are in the running in Group F. Croatia and Morocco are tied with four points, while Belgium have three.
Croatia can qualify if they don’t lose to Belgium. If they do lose, they can still go through if Morocco also lose and get the edge in the tiebreaker. And if Morocco and Croatia both win, the group winner will also be decided by tiebreakers.
Morocco will qualify if they avoid defeat to Canada. They can also qualify with a loss if Croatia win. But if Morocco lose and Croatia-Belgium is a draw, it will depend on the tiebreakers who will go through between them and Belgium.
And for Belgium, they just need to beat Croatia to qualify. A draw would also be enough if Morocco lose. But they cannot qualify with a draw if the other game is a draw, or if Morocco win.
Group G
Brazil and Switzerland currently top Group G with three points apiece, while Cameroon and Serbia are pointless.
Brazil can book their place in the round of 16 if they beat Switzerland without injured talisman Neymar and Serbia don’t lose to Cameroon.
On the flipside, Switzerland will be hoping Cameroon don’t lose to Serbia, and it will be they who can seal that last-16 spot if they beat Brazil.
Cameroon will be knocked out if they lose to Serbia and Brazil win or draw. And Serbia will be out if they lose to Cameroon and Switzerland win/draw.
Group H
Portugal are top of Group H with three points, South Korea and Uruguay have a point apiece, and Ghana have none.
Portugal will qualify for the round of 16 if they beat Uruguay, and they will win the group if South Korea-Ghana is a draw.
Ghana will be knocked out if they lose to South Korea, while South Korea and Uruguay cannot qualify or be eliminated after the second round of games. Tune in to our World Cup 2022 updates to see who goes through.
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