World Cup 2022: An Early Six-pointer in Group C  

Mexico vs Poland

Stadium 974 is the venue for the big Group C game this week, when Mexico and Poland come face to face in a pivotal match on Tuesday. 

With highly rated Argentina in this group, places are at a premium and the World Cup 2022 match between Mexico and Poland is one of the big deciding games of the opening round. Here we have two teams very hopeful of making the Round of 16.

Mexico are ranked 13^th in the world by FIFA with Poland 26^th but the pre-match Mexico vs Poland betting odds can hardly split these two nations and the draw is the front runner at 2.65. But a win for either would surely put them in pole position, with Saudi Arabia making up the group. 

Talking Points

Martino under pressure

El Tri head coach Gerardo Martino has pedigree, having managed Barcelona in the past, and he made a good start when he took over as Mexico boss in 2019, winning the CONCACAF Gold Cup in the same year before qualifying for this World Cup. But the gloss has rather gone off his leadership recently with three defeats in the five recent friendlies, to Sweden, Paraguay and Colombia. Martino suffered the humiliation of fans throwing beer at him in the aftermath of the defeat to Colombia and an early exit in this tournament could see the Argentinean heading for the exit.

But with Poland and Argentina to contend with, that outcome is a real risk.

Martino, and the Mexico fans, are pinning their hopes on Napoli’s 27 year old winger Hirving Lozano, who is starring in Gli Azzurri’s excellent start to the Scudetto campaign and in the Champions League and he scored the winner in Mexico’s recent 1-0 win over Peru. Monterrey striker Rogelio Funes Mori is also likely to start up front while Martino checks on the fitness of Wolves striker Raul Jimenez.

25 year old Ajax midfielder Edson Alvarez is a key player, sitting just in front of the Mexico back four, which will need some protection if Poland’s star striker hits the ground running.

Lewandowski’s last chance

Barcelona striker Robert Lewandowski has been one of the very best players of his generation, and I’d put him in the top five over the past decade. He has won a cabinet full of domestic medals in a glittering career at Bayern Munich and is now ripping up the Spanish league with La Liga leaders Barcelona. Lewi has scored a whopping 76 goals in 134 internationals but, bizarrely, he has often failed to shine on the world stage.

This time may be different as the captain has some serious quality around him; with Napoli’s excellent ball player Piotr Zielinski in a creative midfield position and Feyenoord’s highly rated Sebastian Szymanski in the Number 10 role. The 23 year old is on loan from Dynamo Moscow and the Dutch club has an option to buy which they are sure to activate. He has scored six goals and made three assists this season, and his ability to make an accurate through ball could reap dividends for Lewandowski.                 

History

Poland were twice semi-finalists at the World Cup, in a golden age for the nation, at the 1974 and 1982 tournaments. But they have struggled more recently, failing to qualify in 2010 and 2014 and exiting World Cup 2018 at the group stage, losing two of their three games. Head coach Czeslaw Michniewicz knows he has the players to avoid that fate again and he will have them well prepared.        

Mexico’s best efforts at the World Cup came in 1970 and 1986 when they reached the quarter finals and for the last seven tournaments El Tri have escaped the group stage, only to go out in the Round of 16.

Previous head to head Mexico vs Poland results have been shared with both winning one and there has been one draw. Poland won the only competitive game, a 3-1 win at the 1978 World Cup while Mexico came out on top of a friendly in 2017 as Jimenez scored the only goal in a warm-up for the World Cup at Russia 2018. 

The two teams have identical records over the last six games with two wins, one draw and three defeats but, crucially, Poland have won the last two while Mexico have lost two of the last three.      

Betting Tip

Mexico are marginal favourites at a SBOTOP price of 2.88 while Poland are at 2.89 and these are two well matched teams. For a correct score line 1-1 is the most likely score line at a price of 4.90, while 2-3 goals is at 1.92.

If there is a winner I reckon it is more likely to be Poland who have that bit more quality in attack, some momentum… and the world’s most lethal striker.

 

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