UEFA Nations League: On to Dortmund With Germany in Charge

Germany vs Italy

Germany and Italy are ready to get it on again in their UEFA Nations League second leg tie in Dortmund, with the cards firmly stacked in the direction of Julian Nagelsmann’s Germany.  

This was one of our SBOTOP picks for matches to watch during the international break, and it delivered in a first leg which saw Luciano Spalletti’s Italy take an early lead, only to be pegged back by the relentless Germans.

The UEFA Nations League 2025 betting odds pitched Germany as joint second favourites alongside France and just trailing Spain and, as Les Bleus enter their second leg against Croatia with a two-goal deficit, Nagelsmann’s team is the one to challenge La Roja.    

The second leg on Sunday will be played at a packed Signal Iduna Stadium, an arena fit to host two giants of world football in a winner takes all clash.    

 

Talking Points

Advantage for Germany

In a much-anticipated game at the Giussepe Meazza Stadium in Milan, Italy and Germany traded blow for blow and, while the visitors had the lion’s share of possession with 58-per cent of the ball, it was the Azzurri who had more bite, winning the shot counts by 13 to 10 and six to four on target.

Both teams used the ball well with pass completion in the mid to high 80s, and it was the hosts who drew first blood when Sandro Tonali slotted home the opener with just nine minutes on the clock. But, under Nagelsmann, Germany are a force determined to recapture former glories, and keeper Oliver Bauman kept them in the game with a brilliant stop to deny Fiorentina striker Moise Kean.

Germany levelled early in the second half when Tim Kleindienst headed a Joshua Kimmich cross into the bottom corner and, with 15 minutes to play, the lively Leon Goretzka, who had come close twice in the first half, made it 2-1 to the visitors.           

 

Players to watch out for

30-year-old Leon Goretzka showed in the first leg just what a class act he is with a dominant display and the winning goal, and he will be pulling the strings just behind the attack again on Sunday. 24-year-old Mainz striker Jonathan Burkhardt was quiet in Milan, but he’ll be pushing for a start again in Dortmund and is a player to watch.

While, in the absence of Leverkusen star Florian Wirtz, FC Bayern winger Jamal Musiala will be a constant thorn in the Azzurri’s side. And the Italians will need to keep a close eye on Germany captain Joshua Kimmich, who weighed in with two assists from a wing-back berth.

Italy’s centre-back pairing of Inter Milan’s Alessandro Bastoni and Arsenal’s Riccardo Calafiori will have their work cut out to keep the Germany attack quiet, while Italy’s creative players need a good night in Dortmund.       

Newcastle United’s Tonali is enjoying a superb return for both club and country, while Kean was very lively during the clash in Milan. The man who can open up the Germany defence is Inter Milan creative midfielder Nicolo Barella who, at 28 years of age, is in the prime of his career and a superb operator with 10 goals from 60 international appearances. Spalletti is likely to start up front with Napoli’s Giacomo Raspadori alongside Kean. The 25-year-old is a one-in-five goal scorer for the Azzurri, and he owes his boss a goal.   

 

History

These are two nations with rich heritages in international football, both winning the World Cup four times, Germany last in 2014 and Italy in 2006, and the Germans have been European champions three times to Italy’s two. The Azzurri won their last Euro crown as recently as 2020, but ranked at ninth and 10th in the FIFA World Rankings, Italy and Germany are fighting to get back to the very top.      

Neither side has had Nations League success so far, but Italy have come the closest with third place finishes in 2021 and 2023, while Germany have yet to make the final four.

With five wins and two draws from the last seven games, Germany have the edge over the Azzurri which has four wins, one draw, and two defeats from their last seven.

 

Betting Tip

Following Thursday’s UEFA Nations League 2025 results, Germany have emerged as a strong candidate to break their duck at the Nations League, and they are very close to making the final four.   Before Thursday’s first leg defeat to Germany, the Azzurri lost their final group match to France, and now they have it all to do at odds of 4.34 with the draw at 4.00. I fear Spalletti’s men are about to suffer a third defeat on the bounce. 

   

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