Ahead of tonight’s League Cup ties, I had an inclination to lay down a triple marker.
My plan was to bet on three home victories – for Newcastle, Spurs and Man Utd.
Granted, that was hardly going out on a limb, and the SBOTOP League Cup betting odds were, as usual, most attractive, but my thought process was clear.
Manchester United, fresh from the extremely harsh dismissal of Erik Ten Hag – a classy operator who will always hold a special place in my heart – could not possibly be as profligate as they were in their league defeat to West Ham.
Spurs, fresh from an insipid display and defeat at home to Crystal Palace, would take advantage of home advantage against a weakened Manchester City side – opponents their boss Pep Guardiola had already admitted would call upon players from his under-21 side amidst a hectic schedule.
Newcastle, fresh from league defeat against Chelsea, would turn the tables on the same team because they are desperate to end their trophy drought and because Eddie Howe would select a stronger starting XI than his counterpart.
The League Cup highlights that duly followed highlighted my thinking but, again, despite some impressive scorelines and home comforts for the aforementioned trio, the judgement on all three remains on hold given the above scenarios.
The new system this season, which meant every side competing in Europe were kept apart in the previous round, may not have favoured everyone else – and their irritation was justified – but it also showed that, despite its detractors, this competition matters.
That was evident in the strength of sides put out by United, holders Liverpool (3-2 winners at Brighton), Arsenal (3-0 victors at Preston), Spurs and Newcastle.
Those results also meant some big quarter-final ties were all but guaranteed. Elsewhere, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace went toe-to-toe at Villa Park and, on this occasion, the Eagles played a stronger XI than the hosts.
Again, that was no surprise, given Villa do not have the strength in depth of some of their fellow European compatriots.
And with the home side trailing 2-1, the decision to take off John McGinn, Emi Buendia and Leon Bailey and replace them with three younger players – and with respect to Kadan Young, Jamaldeen Jimoh-Aloba and Lamare Bogard I’ve only heard of one of them – demonstrated that Unai Emery has had to prioritise other competitions. Villa remained in the hunt until the very end though.
On Tuesday night, the desire to do well in the cup was also clear as Championship outfits Stoke and Sheffield Wednesday pushed Premier League opposition all the way.
Wednesday, for so long a top-flight club themselves, even forced Brentford to penalties after Djeidi Gassama’s superb strike cancelled out Kevin Schade’s fortuitous opener – the Bees prevailing 5-4 on spot-kicks.
On the south coast, 2023 semi-finalists Southampton were given a scare by Stoke before James Bree netted a winner two minutes from time to settle an exciting five goal contest.
The Saints had opened up a two-goal lead in the first half when Taylor Harwood-Bellis rose highest in the box to head home a Matheus Fernandes corner and Adam Armstrong converted a penalty.
Stoke, last in the top flight in 2018, pulled one back on the stroke of half-time when Ashley Phillips netted his first senior goal with a brilliant backheel.
A surprise looked on the cards when a Junior Tchamadeu cross was deflected into the path of Tom Cannon who smartly fired into the top corner nine minutes after the break.
Yet then came Bree to secure a first victory for Southampton since they beat Everton 6-5 on penalties in the third-round last month.
There are eight teams left and the quarter-final ties the week before Christmas will be fiercely contested. After all, sides are now just two games from Wembley.
By the way, for the first time in 14 years it will be an all Premier League quarter-final draw.
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