Spanish Super Cup: City Rivals Set for Saudi Semi-Showdown

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

As challenging as the task may be, the Spanish Super Cup – the Supercopa as it is known – may provide Atletico Madrid with their best chance of silverware this season.

That’s because I don’t think Los Rojiblancos are genuine contenders for the Champions League, while they are not title contenders in La Liga either as they sit in fourth spot, 11 points off the summit, at the halfway stage of the campaign.

So it’s Saudi, rather than Spain, where they head over the next few days in search of Supercopa 2026 highlights.

And it’s certainly no mid-season jaunt.

 

Talking Points

Now nobody can claim that Atletico should be considered on an even footing with city rivals Real Madrid – their opponents in Thursday’s semi-final – or Barcelona.

There is too much difference in money spent, wages and tradition to demand that from Diego Simeone’s men. In fact, it is to the Argentine’s immense credit that he has overseen the best period in the club’s history since he arrived in late 2011.

For so long their defence was their strong point with the likes of Diego Godin and Miranda, Juanfran and Filipe Luis. Always solid and reliable, they allowed the team to go forward without fear of being exposed and, while they still have a good rearguard, it is not the impregnable fortress it once was.

The class of 26 still have something about them though and know the importance of this competition as midfielder Alex Baena acknowledged on Sunday following a 1-1 league draw at Real Sociedad.

Simeone’s thinking has been interrupted by an untimely injury with midfielder Pablo Barrios withdrawn at half-time on Sunday evening with apparent muscular discomfort in his calf.

Atlético, though, remain desperate for their first taste of silverware since they clinched the Spanish title in 2021. They have not reached the Spanish Super Cup final since 2020, when the side eventually lost on penalties against Real, meaning it’s 12 years since their last success in the tournament.

As they aim to beat Real in Jeddah, they will be aware that Xabi Alonso’s men Madrid could not have asked for a better start to 2026, crushing Real Betis 5-1 at home on Sunday afternoon, with all five goals scored by former academy prospects.

Despite an injury to French captain Kylian Mbappe, Alonso saw his replacement, Gonzalo Garcia, net a hat-trick in the game. 

Mbappe looks likely not to be available for the Supercopa tie, with Eder Militao and Trent Alexander-Arnold also still injured. However, two defenders, in club captain Dani Carvajal and Dean Huijsen, will travel with the squad and should be available.

Real meanwhile, are the second-most successful side in the competition, lifting the trophy on 13 occasions, with their most recent triumph coming two years ago.

 

History

Real have the distinct edge as you would expect.

This includes the 2014 and 2016 Champions League Finals and a bizarre last 16 tie last season.

After Real triumphed 2-1 in the Bernabeu with goals from Rodrygo and Brahim Diaz (Julian Alvarez replied for Atletico), a first minute Conor Gallagher goal in the second leg drew Atletico level.

Normal and extra-time later, the sides remained deadlocked at 2-2 on aggregate and the resulting penalty shoot-out saw Real emerge 4-2 victors.

There was controversy as Alvarez scored for Atletico in the shoot-out but his effort was ruled out for seeming to touch the ball twice as he slipped – prompting a law change in the summer.

In the league fixtures last season, it took a last gasp Angel Correa equaliser to rescue a point for hosts Atletico in September after Militao had put Real in front.

It was also 1-1 at the Bernabeu when Mbappe cancelled out an Alvarez penalty.

In September in La Liga, Atletico turned on the style to hit five goals in the fixture for the first time in 75 years to inflict Real’s first defeat of the campaign.

Robin le Normand’s header had given Simeone’s side an early lead that was overturned by superb goals from Mbappe and Arda Guler.

But Alexander Sorloth levelled the game at 2-2 in stoppage time at the end of the first half and the hosts took charge after the break.

Alvarez converted from the penalty spot before curling home a brilliant free-kick and the coup de grace was applied by Antoine Griezmann who grabbed the fifth deep into stoppage time.

Two seasons ago, Real got the better of their city rivals in Saudi Arabia in a thrilling Supercopa de Espana semi-final.

There were eight goals and many talking points as Real emerged 5-3 winners after extra-time.

 

Betting Tip

Real are slight favourites with our Supercopa 2026 betting odds, priced 1X2 @ 2.27 and Asian Handicap -0.25 @ 2.11, compared to Atletico 1X2 @ 2.73 and Asian Handicap -0.25 @ 2.47.

The draw @ 3.37 has caught my eye, obviously that would pay out after 90 minutes as this tie can go all the way to extra-time and, if required, a penalty shoot-out.

A repeat of their league meetings last season will earn you a pay day @ 6.50 with Correct Score 1-1.

While I think this will be a tight game, I do think there will be goals – though not as many as the league meeting a few months back – so instead of considering total goal 0-1 @ 3.73, I’m more inclined to lean to 2-3 @ 2.03 or 4-6 @ 2.97.

I’m actually going to go out on a limb here so my *** tip is Half Time Full Time Draw Away @ 6.60.

Will you be so bold to agree?

   

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