Serie A: The Race for Top Four Begins Here

Inter Milan vs Fiorentina

With the Serie A title seemingly returning to Naples for the only time since the late, great Diego Armando Maradona inspired a club to unfathomable heights – and mark my words, he was so adored even some Napoli fans supported his Argentina side against their native Italy during the World Cup in 1990 – then the race for the remaining Champions League spots is where many Italian giants are having to focus their attentions in the final months of the season.

One of those giants, Inter Milan – champions in 2021 and runners-up last term – are certainly favourites for many to claim second place.

Yet the inconsistency which has plagued the Nerazzurri this season will have to be remedied if they are to hold off the likes of Lazio, currently in second spot, defending champions AC Milan, Roma, Atalanta and Juventus, in the race for a top four finish.

Talking Points

As well as produce Serie A highlights, Inter are looking to protect their seven-year unbeaten record against Fiorentina when they welcome La Viola to the San Siro on Saturday.

Simone Inzaghi’s side are without a win in three matches in all competitions and, if that form doesn’t improve, he may well start to feel the pressure of an unemployed Antonio Conte looking over his shoulder.

Conte, of course, was the boss who guided Inter to the title two seasons ago – albeit he left once he realised he could not continue to spend at the rate he previously had.

Summer transfer talk has already started when it comes to Inter with Manchester United defender Victor Lindelof the latest to be linked as they look for Milan Skriniar’s replacement.

The Swede has been struggling with playing time at Old Trafford this season and Inter need a new centre-back given that Skriniar will join PSG on a free transfer in June.

Meanwhile, it’s reported Francesco Acerbi wants to remain at San Siro, making his loan move from Lazio permanent, while Stefan de Vrij seems eager to signing a new deal.

Speculation continues over the future of Denzel Dumfries, fresh from setting up two goals in Holland’s 3-0 win over Gibraltar.

The 26 year-old, who recently changed agents, has done well under Inzaghi who may be needing to sell the Dutchman to generate some resources.

With the personnel available, they are firm favourites this weekend, even against a Fiorentina finally starting to find some form. 

Vincenzo Italiano’s team has strung together a seven-match winning streak between Serie A and the Europa Conference League.

This could be a good test as they are soon going to have to get used to playing away from home.

That’s because La Viola will have to vacate their home stadium for two years beginning in 2024 and returning in 2026 whilst their ground undergoes major renovation work – during which they could lose revenues of up to €30 million when attendances will likely be diminished at a smaller stadium.

The Tuscans are considering several options away from their home venue, including Empoli, Parma and Reggio Emilia.

For now, though, let’s see if they can stretch that run in one of Europe’s great footballing cathedrals.

History

This has been a game which has produced some classics and Serie A highlights in recent years.

I remember in 2019 when the sides played out a 3-3 draw in Serie A when a first minute own goal gave the hosts the lead before Inter fought back to lead 3-1 through Matias Vecino, Matteo Politano and Ivan Perisic before Luis Muriel and a last minute Jordan Veretout penalty left the Florence fans happy.

Two years earlier, Fiorentina edged a nine-goal thriller in front of their own fans – doubles from Vecino, Khoumar Babacar and a header from the late skipper Davide Astori sealed a 5-4 win.

They were well in the ascendancy until two goals in the final three minutes from Mauro Icardi completed his hat-trick and brought Inter back to within a goal.

That remains Viola’s only success over Inter in their last 14 meetings.

Overall, Inter have 71 league victories against Fiorentina who have won on 44 occasions with a further 54 draws.

Last season, this contest ended 1-1 when Dumfries cancelled out the opener from Lucas Torreira – both goals coming in the first 10 minutes of the second half.

Inter edged a seven goal thriller in Florence earlier this term when Henrikh Mkhitaryan scored a 95^th minute winner, just after Luka Jovic seemed to have rescued Fiorentina a point.

Betting Tip

With Inter vying for second spot and Fiorentina seemingly too adrift to secure a European spot and too comfortable to be dragged into the relegation battle, the biggest threat to the visitors could be trying to stay motivated.

Or they could just relax and turn on the style against an Inter team who have trailed in Napoli’s wake this term.

The SBOTOP Serie A betting odds reflect as much.

Inter are priced 1X2 @ 1.67 compared to the visitors @ 4.70.

The draw is not fancied either given the odds are @ 3.45, while a repeat of the corresponding fixture last season – Correct Score 1-1 – will pay out @ 6.80.

For a game which has produced a fair few goals in recent years, it’s worth considering total goal 4-6 @ 3.40 and over 2.75 goals @ 2.08 – total goal 0-1 @ 3.45 and 2-3 @ 1.90 are among the other options.

They may have one eye on their upcoming Champions League quarter-final when they’ll face Benfica, but I simply cannot see past Inter in the San Siro and my *** tip is Asian Handicap Inter -1.00 @ 2.21.

 

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