The Premier League run-in has begun and there are few certainties.
Realistically, it is very difficult to see either Norwich City – spirited but ultimately pointless at Old Trafford at the weekend – or Watford surviving and they seem certain to head straight back to the Championship over the next few weeks.
Equally, only reigning champions Manchester City or Liverpool are going to win the title and Chelsea will almost definitely finish third.
That means the most intriguing permutations surround the race for the fourth and final Champions League berth and Burnley’s bid to overtake Everton and move out of the drop zone.
As far as this SBOTOP writer is concerned – and the Premier League betting odds will largely agree – the Clarets will probably fall short, not helped by the ill-timed dismissal of Sean Dyche last week, while Spurs should claim that fourth spot, if nothing else because they have slightly more consistency than their North London rivals Arsenal and Manchester United.
At the bottom, Burnley (who have badly missed captain Ben Mee over the past six matches) deserve much credit for earning a point at West Ham on Easter Day, just 48 hours after the shock of Dyche’s departure.
Yet even that result does not mask the fact that they need to turn draws into victories quickly and that is something they have only managed on four occasions all season.
The absence of their captain and Burnley’s decision to remove their long-serving manager has been portrayed in some quarters as a boost to Everton’s chances of avoiding relegation, given Dyche’s experience and the timing of his removal.
I certainly concur with that stance even if Everton boss Frank Lampard insists only his team, not events at Turf Moor, can determine the club’s top-flight status.
The Toffees, who host Leicester on Wednesday, are three points above their relegation rivals with a game in hand.
My view will only change if the Foxes manage to take something from the contest at Goodison Park on Wednesday and Burnley follow that up with back-to-back home wins against Southampton and Wolves – a feat they have only managed twice in the past 15 months.
At the other end, a pivotal few days await for Arsenal who have a meeting with old foes Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, quickly followed by a Saturday lunchtime clash at home to United.
While half of United already look like they are mentally ‘on the beach’ and can’t wait for the season to finish, Arsenal had a spell that hinted at improvement under Mikel Arteta.
However, in recent weeks, defeats at Crystal Palace and Brighton have damaged that optimism. And on Easter Saturday, the Gunners went down to a third successive defeat, failing to take advantage of Tottenham’s slip-up at home to Brighton.
Although the Gunners dominated possession for long spells against Southampton, they lacked the tempo to create too many openings against a resolute and defensively organised Saints side.
Realistically, you would think they need at least three points from these two games to keep their top four ambitions alive.
That would allow them to move level on points, or above Spurs, before Antonio Conte’s team visit Brentford.
As inconsistent as they have been, it seems that the clubs which do miss out on fourth place will secure fifth and sixth place finishes, leaving West Ham and Wolves to battle it out for seventh spot, which earns a place in the third tier of European football in the case of the Europa Conference League.
One interesting stat I read relates to Arsenal and midfielder Thomas Partey who will be a big miss in the run-in.
Amazingly, their win ratio drops from 65% to 25% when the Ghanian – who picked up a calf injury in the 3-0 defeat at Palace – does not start.
In fact, without him in the middle of the park, Arsenal appear to have lost their driving force from deep in Arteta’s favoured 4-2-3-1 system and this has a damaging effect on the team as a whole. The number of goals they score decreases (from 1.83 to just 0.38 per 90 minutes) and the number of goals they concede rises (from 1.09 to 1.50 per game).
Partey makes them tick. He has a better dribble success rate (81.4%) than any of the 158 players who have attempted 25 or more dribbles in the Premier League this season and, when he is not in the side, Arsenal struggle to create chances through the middle of the park. He is also a reliable option in midfield who can receive the ball from his centre-backs under pressure, shake off opponents and drive the team forward.
Whether that ends up being crucial over the next few weeks remains unclear.
With or without Partey, I expect Arsenal to miss out on fourth place and without Dyche, I expect Burnley’s six-year stint in the top flight to come to an end. There’ll be plenty more Premier League highlights at top and bottom over the next month before we know for sure.
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