Champions League: Northern France Set for the Battle of the Outsiders

Lille vs Borussia Dortmund

As the sides reconvene in northern France on Wednesday night, there is nothing to choose between Lille and Borussia Dortmund in the last 16 of the Champions League.

Last year’s defeated finalists Dortmund will probably get the nod with many due to the fact they have far more of a European pedigree than their counterparts.

Yet the German outfit are far from the side they were and are in mid-table in the Bundesliga compared to their hosts who are fifth in Lique 1.

 

Talking Points

Last Tuesday, Dortmund struck first through Karim Adeyemi’s fifth Champions League goal of the season but Lille, who have never won a knockout tie, responded through Hákon Arnar Haraldsson midway through the second half.

For the French club, now would be an apt time to end that run, while now would be an ideal time for Dortmund to find some form and deliver some long overdue cheer to their passionate supporters.

While Lille secured a top eight finish in the newly fangled group stage, Dortmund required a last 32 play-off tie with Sporting Lisbon to reach this point.

They enjoyed Champions Legue 2025 highlights along the way with an impressive first leg success in Portugal which paved the way for a goalless second leg on home soil. That 3-0 aggregate win was sealed with goals in Lisbon from former Lille man Serhou Guirassy, Pascal Gross and Karim Adeyemi.

On that basis, perhaps they will relish being the away side once again.

Being at home certainly did them no favours on Saturday when they went down 1-0 at home to Augsburg.

They will be without Felix Nmecha and Daniel Svensson (both knee), but Carney Chukwuemeka could be back in contention after a knee problem of his own.

For Lille, weekend winners at home to Montpellier in which top scorer Jonathan David netted his 22nd goal of the season, they may be brimming with confidence in the Stade Pierre-Mauroy.

It is a ground where they have scored 11 goals in four games and not lost, despite visits from Real Madrid, Juventus, Sturm Graz and Feyenoord in the competition this term.

In fact, it’s fair to say Les Dogues have gone under the radar a bit this season when they have shown that, in a one-off encounter, they can prove a match for most and that includes a 3-1 group stage over Atletico in Madrid, hot on the heels of that triumph against holders Real.

On the flip side, they have struggled against German sides on the rare occasions they have faced them. In 12 meetings, they have recorded two wins, five draws and five defeats.

Tiago Santos (knee) and Edon Zhegrova (groin) are their definite absentees. Mitchell Baaker was substituted against Montpellier and faces a late fitness test, while Ethan Mbappe was injured during the first leg and may be a doubt.

There is no doubt both these sides are considered amongst Champions League outsiders and few would back the winner of this tie from progressing beyond a quarter-final with Barcelona should the Catalans see off Benfica.

Yet Lille’s inexperience has also produced some charming tales to date and, after defeating the holders, what is to stop them defeating last year’s runners-up.

 

History

Until last week’s first leg, these sides had only met twice before.

That was in the fourth round of the UEFA Cup in 2022.

Both goals came in the second half of the first leg at Lille’s Stade Grimonprez-Jooris, Ewerthon’s 67th-minute strike for the visitors cancelled out within five minutes by Salaheddine Bassir – but it was the German side who progressed on away goals after a 0-0 draw in Dortmund.

 

Betting Tip

A fourth successive draw would lead to penalties now the away goal rule has been scrapped.

The Champions League 2025 betting odds would actually make it worth your while as 1X2 Draw is on offer @ 3.19 and Correct Score 1-1 @ 6.00.

The sides are identically matched with both clubs available to tip 1X2 with odds @ 2.54.

It’s also identical – the first time I’ve ever known it – with Asian Handicap betting where you can find odds 0.00 @ 1.95, and -0.25 @ 2.28.

The most attractive goal options include over 2.75 @ 2.14, Total Goal 0-1 @ 3.18 and 4-6 @ 3.28.

Of course, such odds don’t help making a prediction any easier for this SBOTOP tipster, but make one I will and I am going to edge towards the Ligue outfit.

   

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