While Real Madrid run away with the La Liga title race, the relegation battle is hurtling towards a conclusion too, and a lot of business has already been settled.
Almeria are already gone and Granada, 10 points from safety with just five games remaining, look nailed on to join them in the Segunda Division. That leaves Cadiz, managed by Mauricio Pellegrino since January, the only team in the bottom three with any real hope of staying at the top table.
They arrived in the Primera Division in 2020 after a period in the third and second tiers, and the Yellow Submarine has done well to survive for three campaigns, in 12th, 17th, and 14th, but it looks like time may have run out for Cadiz.
Pellegrino’s men have recently endured a brutal list of fixtures, over the past six games losing to the second, third, and sixth-place teams, Barcelona, Girona, and Real Sociedad, while beating fourth placed Atletico Madrid 2-0 with a brace from Juanmi, on loan from Real Betis. And they picked up another win over Granada and a draw last week with Real Mallorca.
Had the season started in March, things would look quite comfortable. But as things stand, the La Liga 2024 betting odds don’t hold out much hope for 18th placed Cadiz.
At SBOTOP odds of 1.06 to go down, you have to say it’s a tall order with a less than 10-per cent chance of succeeding. But whenever I see a seemingly long shot, too long to consider, I always recall Leicester City’s 2016 Premier League winning side who started the campaign as relegation candidates and won the title at odds of 5001.00.
The two teams Cadiz have in their sights are Celta Vigo at 11.00 to take the drop and Real Mallorca at 15.00. With five and six-point lead over Cadiz, Celta and Mallorca should hang on, but the nerves will be jangling.
After such a tough run of fixtures, Cadiz could hardly have a tougher start to their last five games, away at Real Madrid on Saturday. The only shred of comfort is that Los Blancos had an energy sapping Champions League clash with Bayern Munich on Tuesday and midfield ace Jude Bellingham was strangely off the pace.
The five-match run-in
After their ordeal in the Santiago Bernabeu, Cadiz have a gentler four games to come, and they could well pick up points at home to Getafe, sitting 10th, 13th placed Las Palmas at home too, and relegated Almeria away on the last day of the season.
Their other fixture is away to 13th placed Sevilla, who have very little to play for but are in good form. So if Cadiz can hit a real run of form, they could pick up three wins, and nine points from five games will put the cat among the pigeons.
If Cadiz can pick up three wins, then Celta Vigo would need four or five points to be safe. They have the firepower with Jorgen Strand Larsen on 11 goals for the campaign so far, and the evergreen Iago Aspas the man for all seasons. But, of the three teams still seriously in the mix, Celta have the most daunting run-in.
Ninth-placed Villarreal at home is a tough enough test. They are still in the Europa mix-up and have picked up four wins from the last six games, while Celta were slapped 3-0 by Alaves last week.
Celta follow that up with an away match against Atletico and a home game against Athletic Club, the two teams fighting for fourth place, and they finish with a home game against Europa chasing Valencia with a visit to Granada the only respite, and that won’t be easy. If Los Nazaries are relegated, that could make them a difficult opponent, playing with freedom and for contracts.
Can you see four points from that lot?
Real Mallorca should be okay once they get over their upcoming fixture at home to Atletico Madrid this weekend. They have another home game against La Palmas and then they are away to 11th placed Osasuna.
A home match against basement club Almeria and a trip to Getafe finishes Mallorca’s campaign, and I think they can pick up the point a game which will see them safe.
It looks like Celta Vigo or Cadiz to me for the 18th place, but if Celta drop, it will still be a surprise.
Cadiz need a spectacular set of La Liga 2024 results to escape, but they are not done yet. And if Pellegrino’s team can pull off a shock of seismic proportions at the Santiago Bernabeu, then this race will go all the way. If they lose, as expected, they probably need to pick up those three wins from their last four.
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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