Europa League Offers Last Chance Salvation

AS Roma vs Athletic Bilbao

Two sides with serious aspirations to win the Europa League, yet only one will make the quarter-final of this season’s competition after the draw paired them together in the last 16.

This SBOTOP statistician has seen our odds which have Athletic Bilbao as second favourites to win the competition and Roma fourth favourites but something has to give.

And given this represents the only remaining chance of silverware for either club this season, the importance of events in Rome and in the Basque country over the next 10 days cannot be underestimated.

 

Talking Points  

Bilbao have more incentive than most as the Europa League Final will take place at their San Mames stadium in May.

Last year they ended a 40-year trophy drought in a nerve-wracking Copa del Rey final in Seville.

It was quite the finale for the fourth oldest Spanish club who beat spirited underdogs Mallorca 4-2 on penalties (after a 1-1 draw) to claim their first trophy since 1984 and, since then, their confidence has grown to the extent that now they have the taste for Europa League 2025 highlights!

They were certainly unfortunate to be beaten at Atletico Madrid in La Liga on Saturday night when they were twice denied by the woodwork in the closing stages.

Currently sitting fourth in the La Liga table, over two legs, I actually make them slight favourites and they successfully completed the group stages by finishing second in the initial league phase, ending up level on points with Lazio and one ahead of Manchester United.

They also have in their ranks one of the stars of Spain’s Euro 2024 triumph in Nico Williams.

Manager Ernesto Valverde is likely to start him in attack, alongside his older brother, Inaki Williams, while Oihan Sancet has passed a fitness test and will travel to Italy.

For Roma, Leandro Paredes will serve a one match ban but expect to see top scorer Artem Dovbyk, who scored against Bilbao in their group stage clash, leading the line with the Ukrainian striker set to replace Eldor Shomurodov as he returns form injury.

Dovbyk, who was one of the stars of Girona’s brilliant season last year, is likely to be paired with the influential Paulo Dybala (a player club legend Francesco Totti ranks amongst the best in the world).

Boss Claudio Ranieri – the man who helped spearhead a footballing miracle in England in 2016 with Leicester City – has stabilised the club from the Italian capital since coming out of retirement to take charge in November.

He oversaw an exciting contest as Roma knocked out Porto in the play-offs a few weeks ago (when Dybala netted a fine double) – a contest from which Ranieri has since been fined €20.000 by UEFA following critical remarks about referee Tobias Stieler and refereeing chief Roberto Rosetti.

Roma won the maiden Europa Conference League in 2022 and reached the final of this competition two years ago under Jose Mourinho. They have gone backwards since the Portuguese departed in January last year but you would not back against them as they chase further European success, especially as they have been beaten only twice in their last 38 European home matches.

Thursday nights are about to get lively again!

Sit back and enjoy the ride.

 

History

These two sides have only met once competitively before and that was earlier this season in the group stages of the competition in the Italian capital.

On that occasion, Dovbyk’s third goal in as many games gave Roma a roaring start but Aitor Paredes headed in late on to peg back the Giallorossi at the Stadio Olimpico.

 

Betting Tip 

Roma have the edge with our Europa League 2025 betting odds and you can back them 1X2 @ 2.23 and Asian Handicap -0.50, also @ 2.23.

The Draw @ 2.96 appeals to me but I actually have a sneak towards Bilbao as they dream of a European triumph in their own backyard in May (the competition final is in Bilbao).

The Basque club can be backed 1X2 @ 2.98 and Asian Handicap 0.00 @ 2.42.

A repeat of their autumnal 1-1 draw is on offer @ 5.90 with Correct Score.

There are matchwinners on both sides so perhaps Over 2.50 @ 2.20 is realistic and a better bet than Total Goals 2-3 @ 1.97.

Of course, you can always opt for total goal 0-1 @ 2.70 and 4-6 @ 3.88.I think this will be honours even and I am plumping for a ** prediction of Half Time Full Time Draw Draw @ 4.96.

   

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