Euro 2020: Southgate’s Lions Can Smell Semis Spot

Ukraine vs England

After a remarkable Euro 2020 round of 16 which saw several title contenders fall, England suddenly find themselves with a sensational chance of reaching the final of the tournament for the first time in their history.

The Three Lions are on the much more favourable side of the draw and will have quite a favourable quarter-final matchup against Ukraine in Rome.

But while the Euro 2020 betting odds have England as significant favourites, the Ukrainians have shown in this tournament that they are quite a dangerous side that should not be underestimated.

Talking Points

England’s pragmatic style proving effective

England have been far from the most exciting team to watch in Euro 2020, but they have gotten the job done thus far. Their 2-0 win over Germany was the latest example of manager Gareth Southgate’s very pragmatic approach working as planned.

In a bid to neutralise Germany’s dangerous wing-backs, Southgate also opted to play with a back three, with Kieran Trippier and Luke Shaw playing as wing-backs. That strategy proved quite effective as the Germans created few Euro 2020 highlights.

opacity 0

CLICK HERE
TO SEE UPDATED ODDS

UEFA EURO 2020

Neither did England, but Raheem Sterling and Harry Kane were more clinical in front of goal and converted their opportunities, whereas Timo Werner and Thomas Muller did not. Sterling has been sensational in this tournament, scoring three of the team’s four goals.

Amid all the criticisms aimed at Southgate’s strategy, few can argue with the results: three wins, one draw, and no goals conceded. And based on those results, Southgate is unlikely to stray too much from his conservative system against Ukraine, especially with a spot in the semi-finals at stake.

Although, Ukraine might just play directly into Southgate’s hands if they decide to continue playing such an open style. England will be all too happy to wait for Ukraine to come at them and pick them off on the counterattack.

Mason Mount, who has missed the last two games while self-isolating, is favoured to return to the starting lineup. But Jack Grealish, who has assisted two of England’s four goals, might have to settle for his role as super sub.

Ukraine playing with utmost confidence

Ukraine have lived up to their billing as a team that could raise a few eyebrows at Euro 2020. Under the great Andriy Shevchenko’s guidance, the Ukrainians have not been afraid to go out and play their attacking style of football.

That was once again evident in their round-of-16 clash against Sweden, where they had 54 per cent of possession and 15 shots. They kept attacking until the end and were rewarded with the late winner in extra time.

Ukraine are determined to challenge England’s Euro 2020 semi-final hopes when they meet at the Stadio Olimpico — Oleksandr Zinchenko celebrates after Ukraine’s 1-2 Euro 2020 Round of 16 thriller against Sweden at Hampden Park

After playing in a 4-3-3 formation during the entire group stage, Shevchenko switched to a 3-5-2 against Sweden, dropping Atalanta star Ruslan Malinovskiy down to the bench. But with Andriy Yarmolenko, Roman Yaremchuk, and Oleksandr Zinchenko playing as a wing-back, Ukraine still had enough attacking talent to cause the well-organised Swedes problems.

Yarmolenko concerningly limped off late against Sweden, though, and his status for the England match is uncertain.

But while Ukraine’s attacking style has been entertaining to watch, it has left them quite vulnerable at the back. They have conceded six goals in four games thus far. Moreover, they have only kept one clean sheet in their last 16 competitive matches since 2019, and even then, they were lucky not to concede.

It remains to be seen whether Shevchenko will stick with his 3-5-2 formation against England, who showed against Germany that they are capable of shutting down such a system. But with winger Oleksandr Zubkov still out injured, having Zinchenko play as the left wing-back might be their best option.

History

England and Ukraine have squared off seven times in their history. Unsurprisingly, the Three Lions have taken four wins, with Ukraine upsetting the English just once.

Although, the Ukrainians have drawn each of their last two meetings with England, which came during the qualifying stage of the 2014 World Cup.

Betting Tip

	Ukraine vs England	Under 2.50 @ 1.83
	July 4, 3:00 (GMT+8)

SBOTOP odds have England as significant 1.41 favourites to beat Ukraine, who are 7.60 underdogs. Meanwhile, a draw is priced at 4.20.

As well as Ukraine have played in this tournament, England should be too good for them. The Three Lions have the talent to cut through the suspect Ukrainian defence, and Jordan Pickford should fancy keeping another clean sheet, especially if Yarmolenko is unfit to play.

I fully expect England to move on to the semi-finals in the style which they have preferred throughout this tournament, which is to say without too many goals scored.