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Chelsea Out to End Barren Run in EFL Cup London Derby

Chelsea vs Arsenal

There is no doubt that these two clubs have been the dominant figures in the capital since shortly before the turn of the millennium.

Arsenal were top dogs but that changed over time, sparked by Roman Abramovich’s arrival in west London.

The Premier League title tally during the last 20 years actually reads Chelsea 4-0 Arsenal and, in terms of the Champions League, Chelsea 2-0 Arsenal.

Now in 2026 the North Londoners are trying to put that right and there is no doubt who had the edge as both teams put the league to one side to contest the first leg of the EFL Cup semi-finals.

 

Talking Points

Arsenal, who have a six-point lead at the summit, travel to Chelsea who have slipped to eighth and now have a new young manager in tow.

All that means this competition is arguably far more important for the first leg hosts (beaten finalists in 2022 and 2024) than Arsenal, even though the Gunners have not tasted success in this tournament for more than 30 years (1993).

Yet whatever the competition, there is usually full intensity when these two clash and I expect no less EFL Cup 2026 highlights over two legs over the next few weeks.

While this is a bit of a baptism of fire for new Chelsea manager Liam Rosenior, his new players should need no shortage of motivation for a semi-final and a derby, even more so when a place at Wembley is at stake.

Furthermore, and I mean this with utmost respect, I have long said that for all their silverware last term – the Europa Conference (aimed at smaller clubs) and the unofficial World Club Championship – Paris Saint-Germain won the main event last month – Chelsea have not managed to be the sharp end for the major trophies since Abramovich sold the club in 2022.

They won’t be this season either as they are currently eighth in the Premier League while, as far as this SBOTOP observer is concerned, will not be in the mix for the Champions League, unless they gain a beneficial draw in the knockout stages (which I expect them to qualify for).

Arsenal have no such issues and, after a first half of the season in which they had to wrestle with far more injury concerns than any of their rivals, they now appear in rude health.

That was demonstrated on Sunday in the FA Cup at Portsmouth – a game in which manager Mikel Arteta was able to welcome back Kai Havertz as the forward featured for the first time since picking up a knee injury on the opening day of the season.

Can Arsenal beat Chelsea when they meet at Stamford Bridge in the first leg of the EFL Cup semi-final?
Brighton’s Jack Hinshelwood in action against Arsenal’s Mikel Merino during a Premier League match at the Emirates Stadium

It also showcased the depth he now has at his disposal as he was able to make 10 changes from their league encounter against Liverpool and still name a team featuring Spain international Mikel Merino, plus England internationals Noni Madueke and Eberechi Eze.

I expect some but not all of those names to figure again in midweek as Arteta shuffles his pack with the Premier League and the Champions League, particularly the former, remaining his priority.

Chelsea have spent a fortune over the past three years but cannot afford to rest too many of what may be considered their first-choice starting XI.

I do think, though, this will be a must-win for the home side and that they will edge the first leg.

 

History

Over the years, Arsenal have won 85 of their meetings with 66 Chelsea victories and 61 draws.

That includes the league meeting last month when Chelsea were reduced to 10 men when Moises Caicedo was shown his marching orders but the hosts were not deterred.

In fact, they took a 48th minute lead through Trevor Chalobah before Merino levelled 11 minutes later and that was how it stayed.

Their previous meeting at Stamford Bridge had also been an absorbing contest last season when a clever Gabriel Martinelli finish was cancelled out by a Pedro Neto thunderbolt.

Arsenal won the meeting on their own turf last season as Merino scored the only goal of the contest.

Chelsea only have one victory in their last 13 meetings in all competitions in this long-established rivalry.

That was in August 2021 when Romelu Lukaku and Reece James scored the goals in a 2-0 victory in North London.

Arsenal’s last major trophy was when they beat Chelsea in the 2020 FA Cup Final when talisman Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang worked his magic as the Gunners came from behind to win the FA Cup for a record 14th time.

That gained revenge for a clash 15 months earlier – a 4-1 Chelsea success in the Europa League Final.

 

Betting Tip

Given what I have just said, you won’t be surprised to hear I am opting for a home win with our EFL Cup 2026 betting odds.

Don’t forget to take a closer look before you place your bets though!

A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:

⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)

⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT)

⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)

Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.

   

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