Liverpool vs Benfica
Liverpool are on the cusp of reaching the Champions League semi-finals for the first time since winning the tournament back in 2019. The Reds have a commanding 3-1 lead over Benfica, who face a massive uphill battle to keep their unexpected European adventure alive.
Because of their first-leg win, Liverpool can afford to draw or even lose by a single goal in the second leg at Anfield and still make it through.
However, Jurgen Klopp’s side will still be targeting a home win as they look to get back on track after their 2-2 draw against Premier League rivals Manchester City on the weekend.
Talking Points
Reds likely to rest stars ahead of crucial run-in
Liverpool’s hopes of reclaiming the Premier League crown from reigning champions Manchester City took a big hit as they were held to a 2-2 draw at the Etihad.
The Reds deserve credit for coming back to equalise twice, but they missed their big opportunity to overtake City in the standings ahead of the crucial run-in.
Liverpool are in the midst of a tough stretch of matches that will also see them face City again in the FA Cup semi-finals on the weekend. And after that, they will face two of their biggest rivals in Manchester United and Everton in quick succession.
With such big games coming up coupled with the fact that they have a two-goal lead to defend, Klopp will most likely rotate his squad heavily for the second leg against Benfica.
Luis Diaz, who got a goal and an assist in the first leg, will almost surely get the start. Meanwhile, Roberto Firmino, Takumi Minamino and Divock Origi could also get rare Champions League starts to give the likes of Sadio Mane, Diogo Jota, and Mohamed Salah a break. Similar changes are also expected in midfield and defence.
But such is Liverpool’s strength in depth that even their second-string side has more than enough quality to defeat Benfica at Anfield. After clinching qualification to the knockout round, a weakened Liverpool side beat both Porto at home and Milan away in their last two group games. Although, Salah and Mane started both of those games.
Darwin Nunez still banging in the goals for Benfica
Benfica’s Champions League 2022 odds of making the semi-finals are not looking good. The Portuguese did well to fight back after going down 2-0 in the first half of the first leg, and they pulled a goal back through Darwin Nunez. However, they surrendered a late goal to Luis Diaz, which all but ended the Eagles’ hopes of going through.
They now face the daunting prospect of going to Anfield to overturn a two-goal deficit, which will be very difficult to do. Benfica boss Nelson Verissimo will have to be brave and set up his side to attack the Reds. Although, they must also be wary of getting caught on the counter.
But beating Liverpool at Anfield is not impossible, as Inter showed in the round of 16 when they won the second leg 1-0, but it wasn’t quite enough to go through.
Benfica do have a prolific goalscorer in Nunez who is capable of providing plenty of Champions League 2022 highlights in the second leg. Nunez scored a hat-trick in Benfica’s 3-1 win over Belenenses this past weekend, pushing his season tally to 29 goals in all competitions. He has also scored in each of his last four matches.
History
With their first-leg win, Liverpool have now won seven of 11 total matches against Benfica, with the Portuguese side winning four.
However, one of the Eagles’ four wins over the Reds came at Anfield. They won 2-0 in the 2006 Champions League round of 16 thanks to goals from Simao and Fabrizio Miccoli and went through to the quarter-finals 3-0 on aggregate.
Betting Tip
SBOTOP odds have Liverpool installed as overwhelming 1.27 favourites to beat Benfica, who have astronomical 9.50 odds to win at Anfield. Meanwhile, a draw is 5.60.
It seems like a foregone conclusion that Liverpool will field a less than full strength side to face Benfica for the second leg. With important fixtures coming up in the next few weeks, it’s their chance to give their stars some much-needed rest.
Therefore, look for both Liverpool and Benfica to go through the motions and play out a match that is unlikely to see too many goals.
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Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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