Champions League: Lightning Should Not Strike Twice in Denmark for Manchester’s Finest

Copenhagen vs Manchester City 

Looking at our odds, this is a meeting between the Champions League favourites and the biggest outsiders remaining in the competition.

While there is no disputing Manchester City’s quality, FC Copenhagen were considered to be the weakest side when they were paired in the group stages with Bayern Munich, Manchester United, and Galatasaray.

How wrong was I, though (and I bet I wasn’t the only one)?

Talking Points

Now before you think I am getting carried away, let me say from the outset that I think City will win this last-16 tie with a bit to spare.

They are enjoying their best run of the campaign, have a near enough full squad to choose from once again and their 2-0 Premier League victory over Everton on Saturday was their 10^th victory in a row in all competitions.

No wonder manager Pep Guardiola has publicly demonstrated his confidence that his side can retain their European crown.

To my mind, only two clubs are capable of stopping them—Real Madrid and Bayern Munich—and it should be remembered that City proved far too strong for both of those European superpowers in this tournament last term.

As for FC Copenhagen, well, they have enjoyed some memorable Champions League 2024 highlights and deserve this tie after taking advantage of United and Galatasaray’s vulnerabilities. They also drew in Munich to impressively finish second behind Bayern in Group A.

Currently in third place in the Danish Superliga, three points from the summit, they certainly have nothing to lose as they prepare to host the reigning European champions.

Lukas Lerager, match winner against the Turks in December to clinch their place in the knockout stages, is suspended for the hosts, while Davit Khocholava and Theo Sander are injured.

Birger Meling is also a doubt, though former Arsenal goalkeeper Alex Runarsson and ex-Nottingham Forest defender Scott McKenna may feature.

City aren’t believed to be carrying any fresh injury concerns, although influential centre back Ruben Dias is suspended.

Kyle Walker, Bernardo Silva and Kevin De Bruyne may all start after beginning the victory against Everton on the bench.

Among the other substitutes were Jack Grealish and Josko Gvardiol, highlighting the depth of talent Guardiola has assembled.

Saturday was the first time since they won the Champions League last June that Erling Haaland, De Bruyne and John Stones were on the pitch at the same time.

With such strength, if this was a boxing bout, it would probably be a mismatch.

That is not being disrespectful, merely a reminder of the gulf in resources between the two clubs.

No one can begrudge FC Copenhagen’s famous victory over Manchester United, although I genuinely do not think we will get close to a repeat against the blue side of Manchester.

History

Two City wins and two draws is the sum total of their four meetings, all recent.

In the last 32 of the UEFA Cup in 2009, the sides fought out a 2-2 draw in Denmark.

Nedum Onuoha and Stephen Ireland twice put City in front before the Danes fought back through Ailton Almeida and Martin Vingaard.

City edged the second leg to record a 4-3 aggregate success as Craig Bellamy netted a double before Vingaard was on target once more.

That was in the early stages of the Sheikh Mansour City reign.

When they met in the group stages of last season’s Champions League, it was rather one-sided.

Haaland (two), Riyad Mahrez (penalty), and Julian Alvarez (plus an own goal) were the scorers in a 5-0 romp before a goalless draw in Scandinavia a week later.

Betting Tip 

That City are favourites to retain the trophy @ 2.90 and Copenhagen are the rank outsiders @ 451.00 tells you everything.

That is reflected in the SBOTOP Champions League 2024 betting odds on matchday.

While you can get odds of 1X2 @ 8.20 on a home win, a City victory is priced @ 1.26 and a draw @ 5.20.

Likewise, with Asian Handicap, the Danes are on offer +1.50 @ 2.05 and City -1.75 @ 2.09.

If there is a goalless draw in Denmark like last season, Correct Score 0-0 is available @ 17.00.

I cannot see a repeat given that both these sides like to attack so, rather than total goal 0-1 @ 4.41, more likely options are total goal 2-3 @ 2.02, 4-6 @ 2.67 and over 3.00 goals @ 2.04.

I simply cannot see past a City side which appears to be ominously hitting form which is why my tip is Half Time Full Time Away Away @ 1.79.

 

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