Champions League: Inter’s Foot is on Pedal

Inter Milan vs Bayern Munich

Champions League football returns to Milan on Wednesday when Inter and Bayern Munich come together for their quarter final second leg.

Simone Inzaghi’s Inter Milan have a 2-1 lead from the first leg in Munich and Bayern manager Vincent Kompany has a lot of work to do if his team is to turn this around, but with Harry Kane in your side anything can happen, though the England striker was certainly below par in the first leg.

Inter had control for much of the game after Argentine striker and club captain Lautaro Martinez had given them a first half lead, which they held until Bayern’s evergreen striker Thomas Muller levelled on 85 minutes. But the Bundesliga leaders were only on even terms for three minutes before Davide Frattesi struck to silence the majority of the 75,000 at the Allianz Arena.

On Wednesday they will have a passionate crowd behind them at the Guiseppe Meazza Stadium and I Nerazzurri will be ready to see the second leg through. Inter warmed up for this challenge with a 3-1 win over Cagliari, while Bayern played out a 2-2 draw with Borussia Dortmund. In my SBOTOP preview of the first leg I backed Inter Milan with a +0.50 advantage; and I haven’t changed my mind that the Italians will have just too much for the Munich giants.

 

Talking Points

Inzaghi demands even more of his players

Inter moved six points clear at the top of the Serie A table thanks to a comfortable win over Cagliari, though the gap will be reduced to three points if Napoli beat Empoli on Monday night. Marko Arnautovic scored I Nerazzurri’s opener with a rocket into the roof of the net and Martinez doubled the lead with a clever finish. Keeper Yann Sommer kept out Cagliari’s Roberto Piccoli when the striker was clean through, but Piccoli got his goal when he headed home just after the break.

Yann Bisseck headed in a corner delivered by Federico Dimarco to restore Inter’s two goal lead and the league leaders saw the game out. But Inzaghi was critical about how his players managed the ball as they moved towards the finish line and was also concerned by the risk of players picking up injuries.       

He’s a hard task master but Inzaghi has a team with plenty of experience which he can trust to deliver, led by Martinez who has scored seven goals in the Champions League.

 

Bayern must be clinical

Saturday’s Der Klassiker didn’t go the way Kompany had hoped and the Bundesliga title is not yet wrapped up, with a six point lead over Bayer Leverkusen and five games to play. Already out of the DFB Pokal and now in peril in the Champions League the Bavarians need to be at their best on Wednesday to avoid having all their eggs in one basket.

In the first leg Bayern won the shot counts by 20 to ten and seven to four on target but Kane and co simply failed to break down the Inter rearguard until the 85^th minute. And against BVB they had a whopping 27 shots and 11 on target but still failed to win. Midfielder Joshua Kimmich, who has made five assists in the Champions League, said: “We’re just not managing to be efficient at the moment. Why is it we have to go to extreme lengths to score? If we miss that many chances again we won’t make the semi-finals on Wednesday.”      

Kane is the biggest goal threat with ten goals in the competition and he is always a potential match-winner; he just needs to set his sights. The latest Champions League 2025 betting odds make Bayern fifth favourites at a price of around 15.00. Those odds will change significantly if the Bavarians can turn this tie around…but it’s a big ‘IF’.  

 

History

Leaders of Serie A and the Bundesliga these are two of Europe’s football royalty and Inter Milan’s aim is to go one better than their 2023 Champions League final appearance, while Bayern are looking to win a first Champions League since they beat Paris Saint-Germain in the 2020 final.    

In terms of the head to heads the Bavarians have won six to Inter’s five in these meetings and there has been one draw; but with four wins and two draws from the last six outings Inter’s form is better than Bayern’s three wins, two draws and one defeat. And I Nerazzurri are unbeaten in 11 games, and in 19 at home.  

 

Betting Tip

With Inter at 2.48 and Bayern at 2.41 to win there is almost nothing to chose between these two sides and there will be plenty of support for the draw at 3.18.

Kompany’s team will have to go for the win and may leave themselves open to attack and I think if anyone is going to edge this leg it will be the hosts, who are in a great position to advance to the final four. I’ll be back with the Champions League 2025 updates on Wednesday night…let’s see if I get it right again!

   

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