Brest vs Real Madrid
Carlo Ancelotti takes his 2024 Champions League winners to Brittany in the Northwest of France on Wednesday. It’s a lively part of the country and a popular spot for holidaymakers…but Los Blancos have some serious work to do when they rock up at the 15,000 capacity Stade Francis-Le Ble.
La Liga leaders Real Madrid are in 16th place in the Champions League table, the final place in the seeded play-off section while the surprise French package of Brest sits in 13th place with a point more. My Champions League 2025 predictions tell me they will both finish in that group, but Los Blancos could slip down if they lose, or even draw in Brest on Wednesday. That said, they are only one point behind the top eight automatic qualification places in a congested mid-table.
The new format has come in for a fair bit of criticism, not least from my SBOTOP football colleague James but, as a fan of a team not involved, I quite like it. While there are more games to cope with and a rather confused method of setting the fixtures, there looks to be more at stake for more teams as we move towards the final round.
With pre-tournament favourites Manchester City leaving it very late to qualify, even as an un-seeded play-off team, there is peril among the big boys and Los Blancos will be very keen to avoid any more slip-ups before the Round of 16 proper.
Eric Roy’s Brest come into the game on the back of a 1-0 win away to Le Havre while Real Madrid beat Valladolid 3-0, and the Ligue 1 side will have a warm welcome prepared for their illustrious visitors.
Talking Points
Home is a fortress for Brest
While the Pirates’ Champions League 2025 results have been strong, with four wins, one draw and two defeats; their results at home have been particularly good, with wins over Lyon and Nantes in January, and a home win over PSV Eindhoven in the Champions League in December. In fact, Roy’s team has won its last five games at home, a run dating back to mid-November and a tight stadium with passionate home fans can make life very uncomfortable for visitors, however powerful they may be.
6ft 5in striker Ludovic Ajorque scored in the 1-0 win over Le Havre at the weekend and that made it seven goals for the league season for the former Clermont Foot star. And captained by centre back Brendon Chardonnet the hosts have battlers in both penalty areas while Romain Faivre, on loan from Premier League high flyers Bournemouth, has impressed in the midfield. A goal record of ten scored and eight conceded in the Champions League shows a well balanced team, and with the 12th man right behind them Brest will take some beating.
Vinicius suspended for Madrid
Los Blancos have been in scintillating form in recent weeks, scoring 17 goals in four wins, including a 5-1 destruction of Red Bull Leipzig last time out, a result which ended any fears of automatic expulsion from the competition, a problem which still haunts Manchester City. The Brazilian pair of Rodrygo and Vinicius Junior both scored a brace against Leipzig while Kylian Mbappe bagged the fifth. But Vinicius picked up a third yellow card on the way and so he misses out on this crunch clash and he joins the injured trio of Eduardo Camavinga, Eder Militao and Dani Carvajal in the stands.
Of course Los Blancos still have serious firepower and Ancelotti seems to have solved an apparent imbalance following the arrival of Mbappe in the summer. The France captain scored all three in the victory over Real Valladolid and he scored a brace in the 4-1 win at home to Las Palmas last week. Both Valladolid and Las Palmas had a player sent off against Madrid and that’s a fate Brest must avoid; it’s hard enough to compete against Ancelotti’s team with eleven men!
History
While Real Madrid are European royalty, winning their 15th Champions League last season to add to their 36 La Liga titles; Brest are newcomers to the European top table and the club’s most notable achievement was a Ligue 2 title in 1981 and they were Coupe de France quarter-finalists in 2015.
With four wins from six outings Brest are in good form, particularly at home, while Los Blancos have won five from their last six, losing to Barcelona in the Spanish Super Cup.
Betting Tip
Madrid are hot favourites to win this game, at odds of 1.36, with Brest at 6.40 and the draw at 4.72. The visitors will have to keep the home fans quiet somehow; and the best way to do that would be to score early and, if they do, I can see Los Blancos winning with some comfort. Make a slow start and the Spaniards will start to feel the pressure.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:
⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT)
⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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