Champions League: Blues Out to Muzzle the Mastiffs on the Road

Lille vs Chelsea

Reigning champions Chelsea are seeking to move one step closer to defending their Champions League title when they’ll pay a visit to Lille at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy for the second leg of their Round of 16 tie.

The Blues built a two-goal lead during their first leg at Stamford Bridge and they’ll look to extend their unbeaten run amid the looming uncertainty surrounding their club due to unprecedented recent world events.

Just like in the first leg, the pre-match betting odds are favouring Chelsea to take home another win and it’ll be interesting to see how Lille will respond at home this midweek.

It’s been an up-and-down campaign so far for the defending Ligue 1 champions, although they’ve done fairly well since their first leg defeat against the Blues last February.

Most pundits may have written the Mastiffs off already, so this should motivate them to perform and give their home fans something to cheer about.

Talking Points

Chelsea ignoring the outside noise

Thomas Tuchel has done an excellent job on keeping his players in check amid the circumstances surrounding the club’s ownership.

We previously talked more about it here at SBOTOP, although it got more complicated as of the moment since Roman Abramovich was now sanctioned by the UK government.

There’s no doubt that the current events have dominated the talk around Stamford Bridge. But perhaps we may have overlooked their results lately as they’ve gone undefeated so far this March.

Since losing to Liverpool in the EFL Cup final, Chelsea have won against Luton Town in the FA Cup fifth round, and they’ve won over Burnley, Norwich City, and Newcastle United in the Premier League to further strengthen their position in the top four.

Kai Havertz has been the man of the hour for Chelsea since he has scored four goals in the said stretch and he’ll be featured once again up front alongside Timo Werner, Hakim Ziyech, and Christian Pulisic.

Despite their off-pitch problems, Thomas Tuchel assured everyone that his side will carry on no matter what even if it means him driving the bus if they aren’t allowed to take their usual business-class flights to the matches.

Lille finding their bite

Les Dogues went on a similar run to Chelsea’s for the month of March and Jocelyn Gourvennec is hopeful that they can turn the tie around at home.

Although they’re only sixth in the Ligue 1 standings right now, Lille have shown improvement as they’ve also gone undefeated in their last three league games.

Granted, that they went up against weaker opposition at the time, Lille showed what they’re fully capable of since their unbeaten run were all clean sheets.

Jonathan David has been the main man for Lille up front, but Gourvennec might have to consider starting Burkan Yilmaz alongside him for better chances up front. Meanwhile, Benjamin Andre’s return certainly helps since their midfield ace Renato Sanches is out for a few weeks due to a thigh injury.

History

Lille have lost each of their last three Champions League games against Chelsea. Alongside Chelsea, Lille have suffered three losses too against Manchester United and Valencia, which is the most against any other side in the tournament.

After winning only one of their first eight Champions League road games against French opposition (D2, L5), Chelsea have now won each of their last two – albeit in the group stage (against Lille in 2019/20 and Rennes in 2020/21).

Chelsea are likely to progress whenever they win the first leg as shown in nine of their last 11 ties. Lille, meanwhile, have been eliminated from each of their previous three ties when losing in the first leg.

Their first leg ended with a 2-0 win for Chelsea as Kai Havertz and Christian Pulisic had one goal each in the first and in the second half.

Betting Tip 

With their aggregate lead, Chelsea are unsurprisingly favoured to win the second leg, as per the Champions League 2022 odds. Chelsea are installed at 1.91, while Lille aren’t far behind at 3.85 and a draw is pegged at 3.45 in the 1X2 market.

We expect a similar outcome as in their first leg, although Lille have the capability to score and create Champions League 2022 highlights, making Total Goal 2-3 @ 1.90 another viable bet.

Lille are also known to have a strong rearguard. However, the Mastiffs might have to go out of their character in order to pull off the improbable comeback, which may leave them vulnerable at the back for Chelsea to exploit.

 

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