Can Athletic be Third Time Lucky in Copa del Rey?

Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid

They call this El Viejo Clasico, a fact I was not aware of until a few days ago.

Translated, it basically means the ‘other classic’, the name given to any football encounter between Athletic Bilbao and Real Madrid.

And as they prepare for a Copa del Rey quarter-final, it is actually their fourth meeting in little over two months.

Yet this arguably means more to the Basque club who suffered double heartbreak last season as they lost two Spanish Cup finals in as many weeks.

After Bilbao went down 1-0 to Real Sociedad in the 2020 Copa del Rey final last April – postponed because of the coronavirus pandemic – they then lost to Barcelona a week later in the 2021 showpiece.

So, can they now finally create some Copa del Rey highlights to savour and potentially be third time lucky in their quest for glory?

Talking Points

Certainly, with Atletico Madrid and holders Barca already out, victory over Real would give them, on paper, a clearer path.

An Iker Muniain penalty in extra-time eliminated the Catalan giants in a 3-2 defeat which showed again how much Bilbao love the cup.

Los Leones won what was an absolutely thrilling contest after 120 minutes having taken the lead on three separate occasions after Barcelona equalised twice.

Now another passionate crowd awaits in San Mames to urge Bilbao on.

On the team news front, Dani Carvajal and Marco Asensio trained successfully with the group on Tuesday and are expected to be included in Carlo Ancelotti’s squad.

As expected, Karim Benzema – the player I consider so vital to their chances of success this season – isn’t ready to be involved just 10 days after sustaining  a hamstring injury.

Carvajal had been absent following a positive Covid-19 test while Asensio suffered a small muscle tear in his left leg.

Ferland Mendy is not available but the South Americans, recently away on international duty, could well be rushed back for the clash.

That means Brazilians Casemiro, Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo and Eder Militao. Fede Valverde, however, remains away with Uruguay.

Real will start as favourites but beware Marcelino’s men who are due some luck and out for a ‘Cinderella run’. Perhaps this could be their moment.

History

Much has changed over the last half century or so.

The Basques and Real met in nine Cup finals between 1903 and 1958 with Bilbao triumphing in six of those matches.

Madrid have dominated generally in modern times but Bilbao have actually got the better of their illustrious counterparts on occasions.

Cast your mind back to the 2021 Spanish Super Cup and a Bilbao victory in the semi-final over Real through two Raul Garcia goals which sealed victory before they went onto lift the trophy.

Of course, revenge was gained last month.

Indeed, Real have won six of their last seven meetings, including last month in the Spanish Super Cup Final, a 2-0 success courtesy of goals from Benzema and Luka Modric.

They also met in La Liga in December when two goals inside the first seven minutes from Benzema fired Real to a 2-1 victory. Bilbao had pulled one back through Oihan Sancet by the 10^th minute and that’s how it stayed.

And with a Benzema goal giving Real a 1-0 victory at the start of that month in the Bernabeu, it’s easy to see why the Frenchman has the knack against Bilbao.

Betting Tip

	Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid	Half Time Full Time Draw-Home @ 7.00
	February 4, 04:30 (GMT+8)

With the SBOTOP Copa del Rey betting odds, Real Madrid are favourites to win the competition @ 2.50. Bilbao are third favourites but priced out @ 7.00.

As for this contest, a much closer encounter is expected.

Real remain favourites and can be backed First Half 1X2 @ 2.75, 1X2 @ 2.25, First Half Asian Handicap -0.25 @ 2.26 and Asian Handicap -0.50 @ 2.25.

Bilbao have a definitive appeal for me both at 1X2 @ 2.95 and Asian Handicap +0.25 @ 1.92. They are also available First Half 1X2 @ 3.70 and First Half Asian Handicap 0.00 @ 2.26.

Over 2.75 goals @ 2.17, total goal 0-1 @ 3.20, 2-3 @ 1.82 and 4-6 @ 3.35 are among the options.

A second 2-0 Real success in a matter of weeks is up for grabs @ 10.50 with Correct Score.

This game must be decided on the night but, if you think it will be a draw after normal time, then 1X2 Draw @ 3.15 may be tempting.

I have a sneak for Bilbao in this one and I am going for an unusual ** tip of Half Time Full Time Draw-Home @ 7.80.

 

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