Bundesliga: Is this Bayer’s Last Chance?

Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich

Bayer Leverkusen aim to reduce the gap at the top of the table to five points with 12 games remaining when leaders Bayern Munich are the visitors to the BayArena on Saturday.

Vincent Kompany is heavily backed to bring the Bundesliga title back to Bavaria at SBOTOP odds of 1.02, and last week they cemented their position at the top with a 3-0 win over Werder Bremen, while Leverkusen were held to a goalless draw away to Wolfsburg. A win for the Bavarians at the weekend would stretch the lead to 11 points, and surely that would be game over, while I suspect the visitors would take a draw right now.

While Xabi Alonso’s Leverkusen made it through to the Champions League knockout phase, the Bavarians missed the cut and are embroiled in a play-off two-leg tie against Scottish club Glasgow Celtic. On Wednesday night, Kompany’s men came through the first leg in Glasgow with a 2-1 win and will expect to see the job through next week back home in Bavaria. 

Leverkusen have had longer to prepare for this Saturday teatime clash, and it is, quite simply, a must-win for Alonso’s men. 

 

Talking Points

Alonso searching for the perfect balance

Die Werkself need a near perfect set of Bundesliga 2025 results from hereon if they are to push Bayern to the wire. They proved they can do it last season, and they have pretty much the same team which stormed to a record-breaking title in 2024. Alonso strengthened his hand in the January transfer window with the recruitment of Mario Hermoso from AS Roma and Emiliano Buendia from Aston Villa, both on loan. Those recruits will strengthen a back four marshalled by the superb Jonathan Tah and a midfield held together by the combative Granit Xhaka.

On the back of a recent draw with RB Leipzig, Bayer’s recent clash with a dangerous Wolfsburg side turned out to be another disappointment and, while the midfield and backline were solid as ever, the attack lacked punch and only managed one shot on target in the 90 minutes.

Alonso started the game with Victor Boniface up front, but he couldn’t add to his seven goals for the campaign, and the Bayer boss may regret his decision to start with top scorer Patrik Schick, who has 14 goals, on the bench. He replaced Boniface with just a quarter of an hour to go, and the Czech hitman was joined as a substitute by Florian Wirtz, who has nine goals and 11 assists and, while he joined the action with half an hour to play, Wirtz couldn’t open up the Wolves defence either. I expect both Schick and Wirtz to start against Bayern.

 

Olise is banging for Bayern

The Bavarians have had no such problem scoring goals, with 14 from the last five games in all competitions, and a whopping 65 in 21 league games. Harry Kane, with 21 goals and seven assists is leading the race for the Golden Boot, seven ahead of second placed Schick now that Omar Marmoush has switched from Eintracht Frankfurt to Manchester City. Jamal Musiala has been in superb form again, with 10 goals and three assists.

But Kompany must be delighted with the contribution of summer recruit Michael Olise, who has six goals and seven assists and bagged his 11^th goal of the season in all competitions in Bayern’s 2-1 win over Celtic on Wednesday.

At 23 years of age, the former Crystal Palace winger has settled brilliantly to life in Bavaria, and he will only get better, and Olise has become a key part of a team which looks destined for silverware. If Bayern can win this game against Leverkusen, the Bundesliga 2025 betting odds will be very close to handing Kompany his first title as a manager. 

 

History

With 44 wins to 16, Bayern Munich have had the better of Bayer Leverkusen in all competitions since 1992. But the last time they met, Alonso’s men came out 1-0 winners in the DFB-Pokal Round of 16 at the beginning of December. In fact, Leverkusen are unbeaten in the last five meetings with three wins and two draws.

Die Werkself have been very strong at home with eight wins, two draws, and one defeat at the BayArena. But then, Bayern have been efficient away from home with seven wins, two draws, and a single defeat.

In terms of recent form, the visitors have been more consistent over the past six games with five wins and one defeat from the last six, while Leverkusen have had three wins, two draws, and a defeat.

 

Betting Tip

Leverkusen are priced at 2.78 to win this six-pointer with Die Bayern at 2.14, and the draw is at 3.29. It’s a must-win for the hosts who have had longer to prepare, and a full strength team will give Die Werkself a chance to cut the gap at the top of the table.

 

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