Bundesliga: Dortmund’s Day of Destiny is Here!

Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz 05

By 4-30pm (UK time) on Saturday Borussia Dortmund could be celebrating as the 2023 Bundesliga champions, and all they need to do is to match Bayern Munich’s result.

It sounds simple enough; particularly when Edin Terzic’s side hosts ninth placed Mainz 05, while Thomas Tuchel’s FC Bayern have a difficult visit to Cologne. Mainz have won only once over the past six games while Cologne are upwardly mobile, losing just once in that period. So it looks even better for Die Schwarzgelben; they just need to do their business when Bo Svensson brings Mainz to the Signal Iduna Park.     

After a season of chasing the Bavarians the Bundesliga 2023 betting odds are now right behind Die Schwarzgelben at a price of 1.13 to pick up a first title in 11 years, with FC Bayern at 4.70.

Mainz have lost the last four in the league and, when they face the Yellow Wall among a hostile 80,000 crowd in Dortmund, I can’t see them stopping that trend until next season.     

Talking Points

BVB’s multiple goal threat  

With the finishing line fast approaching Dortmund passed the test against Augsburg last Sunday, winning 3-0 as Sebastien Haller scored a brace and Julian Brandt added an injury time third. Bayern’s clash with Leipzig was the big match of the weekend and it went just as the Dortmund fans would have hoped, certainly after half time. The Bavarians were one up at the break, courtesy of a Serge Gnabry goal but they collapsed in the second half as Red Bull ran out 3-1 winners.

In contrast, Terzic’s men have just got better and better, winning the last three, scoring 13 goals and conceding just twice. Haller has bagged five goals in the three games, two in a 5-2 win over Borussia Monchengladbach and another in the 6-0 destruction of Wolfsburg. The BVB goal threats are coming from all angles; Jude Bellingham scored twice against Wolfsburg and the in-form Karim Adeyemi also bagged a pair. Following his summer transfer from Red Bull Salzburg Adeyemi struggled to settle but he has been brilliant since the World Cup, scoring six goals and making five assists in 2023, which means he’s been involved in a goal every 64 minutes. He scored a brilliant solo winner in BVB’s Champions League tie with Chelsea and can claim to be faster than Usain Bolt over 30 metres. That kind of pace is frightening for a wing-back and the German international is growing in confidence week on week.

Add into the mix Marco Reus, Donyell Malen and Gio Reyna and this team is never going to be short of goals.             

Have Mainz headed to the beach?  

While BVB have exploded into life over the past month their visitors have rather gone to sleep, losing the last four without putting up much of a fight. It’s hard to believe that Svensson’s side beat Bayern Munich 3-1 only a month ago because, since then, they have picked up no points and conceded 13 goals.

The frustrating thing for the Mainz 05 fans it that they are still only five points behind Bayer Leverkusen in sixth, so they had a real chance of European qualification but that has now disappeared without trace. The manner of their defeat last week was particularly galling for the 33,000 who turned up, as Mainz led relegation threatened Stuttgart before folding entirely to lose 4-1, a result which lifted VfB out of the bottom three.    

Marcus Ingvartsen scored the hosts’ goal to make it ten for the campaign, but it is difficult to see how he will score against a Dortmund side which has conceded just three goals in five games…and one is unlikely to be enough on Saturday.

History

Dortmund have dominated the head to head Bundesliga 2023 results in this fixture, winning 21 of the last 35 meetings with Mainz, drawing eight and losing six.

BVB won 2-1 in Mainz in January as Reyna scored a late winner which lifted Dortmund up to third in the league table.  

And I’m backing them to do the double on Saturday. BVB’s home record of 14 wins, one draw and one defeat is unlikely to be tested by a team which has just been thumped by a relegation candidate.   

Betting Tip

The SBOTOP odds price Borussia at 1.17 to win with the draw at 7.14 and Mainz at 8.44. Can the visitors get up for this game? I don’t actually think that matters too much because the hosts certainly will be. BVB’s destiny is in their own hands. The alterative to winning could mean an 11^th consecutive Bundesliga title for FC Bayern. What more motivation do you need?

 

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