Bundesliga: Dortmund Fiddle with Top Four Finish

RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund

It’s the tail end of the season, and Leverkusen have already claimed the Bundesliga crown, but there’s still plenty of pivotal football left before the season is done and dusted.

Leipzig and Dortmund are fourth and fifth in the standings, respectively, with just two points separating the two rivals. Their upcoming clash at Red Bull Arena will be crucial for both sides, and this SBOTOP writer thinks that this’ll be the most competitive matchup in the remaining games on the Bundesliga slate this season.

Talking Points

Leipzig’s offence finds its form

Aside from Leverkusen, who appear to be the most dominant outfit in Germany, Leipzig have been the hottest team in the Bundesliga at the tail end of the season.

With an unbeaten record in their last seven and a three-game winning streak to boot, Marco Rose and his outfit found themselves in the top four of the Bundesliga standings.

Their defence has been solid as of late, only giving up one goal at most in each of their ties across all competitions since Valentine’s Day, coupled with a handful of clean sheets from time to time.

Their first third’s form has been pivotal in their tail-end run in the season, but it’s their scorching forwards that’s been the key to their recent success.

Lois Openda and Benjamin Sesko serve as the horns of RB’s potent offence. The dynamic duo has been staples on the scoreboard in the past few weeks, scoring in literally every one of their Bundesliga tie matches since their emphatic 1-4 win against Freiburg at Europa-Park Stadion.

In that match, Openda’s stellar form headlined Bundesliga 2024 news stories—a masterclass, to say the least. The 24-year-old striker scored two goals and claimed two assists against helpless Freiburg, tallying goal-involvements in every Leipzig goal during that tie. The Belgian makes RB Leipzig history as he joins Christopher Nkunku and Timo Werner as the only RB players to have a hand in four goals in one game.

Meanwhile, Benjamin Sesko has been reminding everyone that Openda’s not the only forward adversaries should be worried about. The Slovenian found the back of the net three games in a row, becoming Leipzig’s second-highest goal scorer this season with 10 (goals).

Marco Rose’s Batman and Robin will be put to the test against Dortmund, a club salivating to take Leipzig’s spot in the top four.

Dortmund’s Champions League dreams are still alive

BVB looked like they would be the team to put an end to Leverkusen’s historic winning streak on Sunday, when Dortmund found themselves up by a goal past the 80-minute mark. But time and time again, Xabi’s Bayer Leverkusen find a way to come back from the dead and keep their perfect season intact.

This time it was Josip Stanišić who was the hero for Bayer, scoring a leveller seven minutes into injury time to make it a 1-1 game.

With this draw, BVB had to settle for 57 points after Matchday 30, falling two points behind RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga table. As it stands, Dortmund is sitting pretty comfortably in fifth place, predicting Europa League qualification. However, the new UEFA coefficients would give the fifth seed a spot in the Champions League.

As it stands, Bayer Leverkusen, Bayern Munich, Stuttgart, RB Leipzig, and Borussia Dortmund are the prime candidates to represent Germany in the next Champions League campaign, while sixth-placed Eintracht Frankfurt are poised for the Europa League.

History

Their past head-to-heads have been nothing short of competitive. In their last 17 games since 2016, BVB have won eight, while RB Leipzig are right there with seven wins and two draws. Their most recent match saw a five-game thriller at Signal Iduna Park, where Leipzig sneaked a 2-3 away win against BVB.

In recent form, Leipzig have been one of the best teams in the German top flight in the past few months, going unbeaten in seven straight games and winning three in a row. Meanwhile, Dortmund have also been competitive in the top flight, but more notably, they’ve been scorching in the UEFA Champions League. They’ve booked themselves a semifinal spot after defeating a talented Atletico Madrid squad 5-4 on aggregate. They’re set to face Mbappe and PSG for the first leg of their semifinal clash after their bout against Leipzig this weekend.

Betting Tip

The Bundesliga 2024 betting odds have the red-hot Leipzig as the favourites at 1.66, while the visiting Dortmund are the underdogs at 4.00 with a draw price of 4.03.

Dortmund at 4.00 seems like a value bet, given that they’ve been showing formidable form in both the top flight and in the Champions League, but Leipzig’s current form justifies the price.

Instead, a safer but equally exciting line is their total goals under 3.25 at 2.00. Yes, Leipzig’s final third has been in stellar form, but Dortmund’s defence has been sturdy as well. They recently held Bayern to a clean sheet while only allowing Frankfurt and Leverkusen to score just one goal.

 

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