Bundesliga: Bayern Hope to Avoid European Hangover at Hoffenheim

TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayern Munich

After empathically sealing a spot in the Champions League quarter-finals, Bayern Munich will be back in Bundesliga action this weekend as they take on fourth-placed Hoffenheim.

The Bavarians, who have been in uneven form of late, suffered another slip-up last time out as third-placed Leverkusen held them to a 1-1 draw at the Allianz Arena. They will hope to avoid another setback when they travel to the PreZero Arena.

However, Hoffenheim dealt the defending champions a crushing defeat the last time they paid a visit, and they will head into this match in fine form as they look to defy the Bundesliga 2022 odds once again.

Talking Points

Bayern go bold against Red Bulls

After being held to a shock 1-1 draw in the first leg of their round-of-16 tie, Bayern Munich were back to their best as they brushed Red Bull Salzburg aside 7-1 in the second leg at home to book their place in the Champions League quarter-finals.

Robert Lewandowski snapped a rare two-game goalless drought as he scored a first-half hat-trick, albeit with the aid of two penalties. The prolific Pole has now overtaken Ajax’s Sebastien Haller as the Champions League’s top scorer with 12 goals in 8 games and has a whopping 42 goals on the season.

Bayern coach Julian Nagelsmann fielded a remarkably attacking 3-2-4-1 formation against Salzburg, with the quartet of Thomas Muller, Leroy Sane, Serge Gnabry, and Kingsley Coman all playing behind Lewandowski. All four were terrific; Muller bagged a brace, Sane had a goal and an assist, Gnabry got a goal and Coman claimed an assist.

Although, it seems unlikely Nagelsmann will stick with such an aggressive lineup this weekend and could revert to a more conventional 4-2-3-1 formation.

At the back, Bayern captain and goalkeeper Manuel Neuer made his return to the side against Salzburg after missing the last month due to knee surgery. Bayern struggled defensively without Neuer as they conceded seven goals and kept only one clean sheet in the five games he missed.

Meanwhile, defender Dayot Upamecano dropped to the bench against Salzburg, although he did come on for Lucas Hernandez to play the last half hour and could be recalled to start against Hoffenheim.

Hoffenheim have turned things around

Hoffenheim are back in business. After a disastrous run of Bundesliga 2022 results that saw them lose three games in a row – with a 4-1 drubbing at the hands of Freiburg in the DFB-Pokal in between – they have now won four straight games.

Granted, their list of conquests – Arminia Bielefeld, Wolfsburg, Stuttgart, and Koln – isn’t all that impressive. Still, coach Sebastian Hoeness should be pleased with the positive progress his team has made to recover from their recent rough patch.

Hoffenheim have managed to turn things around despite top scorer Ihlas Bebou (7 goals) still unable to find the net since his brace against Augsburg in the first game of 2022. Veteran Andrej Kramaric, who led the team with 20 goals last term, has also had a subpar goalscoring season.

But Hoffenheim just continue to find goals from across the squad. Young strikers Georginio Rutter and Christoph Baumgartner have both contributed a couple, while defenders Benjamin Hubner and Stefan Posch have also chipped in.

Hoffenheim have a terrific home record this season, with 8 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in 12 games. They have won three of their last four at home, with their lone setback coming in a 3-2 defeat against Borussia Dortmund.

 

History

Bayern have gotten the better of Hoffenheim over the years. The Bavarians hold a significant 18-4 advantage in terms of Bundesliga wins, with five draws.

However, two of those four Hoffenheim victories have come in the last few years. In 2019, they claimed a 2-1 win over Bayern at the Allianz Arena. And in 2020, they pulled off a shock 4-1 win at home thanks to an Andrej Kramaric brace.

But Bayern have since restored order with back-to-back big home wins. Bayern have scored four or more goals four times in their last five meetings against Hoffenheim. That includes a 6-0 thrashing at the PreZero Arena in February 2020.

Betting Tip

SBOTOP odds have Bayern tipped at 1.56 to beat Hoffenheim, who are priced at 4.80 to win at home. A draw is pegged at 4.50.

While the last few matches between these two clubs have been incredibly high scoring, Bayern’s midweek European outing may have an effect this weekend. Nagelsmann fielded close to his full first-choice side against Salzburg, and with Bayern’s depth compromised by a couple of injuries, they won’t be nearly as strong if Nagelsmann opts to rotate.

And on the other side, Hoffenheim are in fine form – especially at home – and have had their success against Bayern by playing their direct counter-attacking style. While it may be too much to ask for them to beat Bayern again, I expect them to keep the Bavarians at bay in a lower-scoring affair.

 

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