Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets
The momentum has suddenly shifted in the Heat’s favour here in the 2023 NBA Finals. After getting dominated in Game 1, the Heat bounced back in Game 2, and they now have the home court advantage heading back to South Beach.
Many believed that the Nuggets would make short work of the Heat because of their gap in the regular season standings. The eighth-seeded Heat weren’t supposed to make this far, as opposed to the West-leading Nuggets, but here we are.
According to the SBOTOP odds, the Nuggets are still in a strong position to defeat the Heat, but it might take them longer than most people anticipate now that the series is even at one game each.
It would be a grave error to write out the Heat, as we have discovered throughout this year’s playoffs.
Talking Points
Heat’s shooters make the difference
The Heat were able to steal Game 2 because they shot much better, particularly from three-point range, going 49-per cent compared to 33-per cent in Game 1.
Max Strus disappeared in the first game, missing all nine of his three-point attempts. In Game 2, he went 4-for-10 for 14 points, and he added six assists.
Duncan Robinson is rediscovering his stroke in this series. After going 1-for-6 from the field in Game 1, the 29-year-old shot 4-for-5 in Game 2 en route to 10 points, all in the final period, to complete the Heat’s comeback.
So far, Gabe Vincent has been the most reliable scoring guard for the Heat, averaging 21 points and four assists per game while shooting 58-per cent from the field and a whopping 56-per cent from three-point land.
These three perimeter players will have to keep firing, especially since Jimmy Butler has struggled lately, only averaging 17 points on 39-per cent shooting in this season’s Finals. NBA analyst Skip Bayless said that Butler’s father is ill, which may be the reason for his slump.
Heat center Bam Adebayo is also an x-factor in this series. In the first two games, he has averaged 23.5 points, 11 rebounds, and 4.5 assists on 54-per cent shooting from the field while guarding two-time MVP Nikola Jokic for the most part.
Jokic can’t do it all alone for the Nuggets
Nikola Jokic may have scored 41 points in Game 2, but that played right into the Heat’s strategy.
The Nuggets are at their most dangerous when Jokic creates NBA 2023 highlights not only for himself but also for his teammates. However, the two-time MVP only had four assists on Sunday.
Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon still managed to score 18 and 12 points, respectively, but Michael Porter Jr. only had five points after scoring 14 in Game 1.
The Heat also managed to exploit Jokic’s shortcomings on the defencive end by putting him in different actions that were designed to pull him out of the paint.
In Game 2, Denver had their third-worst defencive rating in the playoffs (129.1), so head coach Michael Malone expects more after ripping the team for their lack of effort.
History
Historically, the Heat have a lot more playoff experience than the Nuggets, as this is their seventh Finals appearance in franchise history compared to only one by the Nuggets.
Prior to Game 2, Miami hadn’t won in Denver since 2016. Not a single player that played for the Heat that day is still on the roster, while Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray were both merely rotation players for the Nuggets at that point.
The Game 2 loss was the Nuggets’ first home defeat this postseason, and they’re 4-3 on the road. Miami, meanwhile, are now 7-5 on the road and 6-2 at home.
Teams that go up 2-1 in a playoff series have won 79-per cent of the time, making Game 3 a pivotal match.
What are the odds?
The money line is still in favour of the Nuggets, as they’re priced at 1.71 to win the whole thing. However, their margin of error is not that big, as the Heat are at 2.17.
Furthermore, the NBA 2023 odds have the Nuggets winning Game 3 on Wednesday despite their subpar record on the road this postseason. -3.50 @ 2.16 in favour of Denver is also on offer in the Asian Handicap market. But the best bet here is to go for a relatively low-scoring game, and Under 215.00 at 1.92 is the one to keep in mind. Erik Spoelstra had made the first big adjustment on the defencive end, and we expect Michael Malone to do the same.
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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