Newcastle United vs Manchester City
After a rare campaign without any trace of silverware, Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City seem to have ‘the eye of the tiger’ once again and, on Tuesday, they travel to Newcastle for a mouth-watering EFL Cup semi-final first leg.
City have re-loaded this season, recruiting aggressively with Rayan Cherki, Tijjani Reijdners and now, Antoine Semenyo arriving at the Etihad for what promises to be an enthralling few months. The Sky Blues have let Arsenal stretch their lead at the top of the Premier League but the gap, six points, is not insurmountable, and Guardiola’s men are fighting on four fronts at home and in Europe.
Hosts Newcastle ended their 70-year trophy drought last year by winning the 2025 EFL Cup and now they are one step away from taking another crack. After a sluggish start to the campaign Eddie Howe’s side are going well in the Premier League, currently sixth in the table and they too are fighting on four fronts; but the EFL Cup 2026 betting odds say they face the tournament favourites on Tuesday and they will need to make the most of home advantage in the first leg.
Both teams were in FA Cup action on Saturday and, while Manchester City put on an exhibition against League One Exeter City, winning 10-1, the Magpies had an all Premier League affair to cope with as Howe welcomed his old friends from Bournemouth. And they had a gruelling afternoon, winning a penalty shootout after the match finished 3-3 after 120 minutes of football.
And that gives the visitors quite an advantage.
Talking Points
Barnes should start for the Magpies
As the son of Burnley striker Paul Barnes and born in the East Lancs town, I have followed Harvey Barnes’ progress, first at Leicester City and now at Newcastle. The Magpies have a richness of talents in their creative unit with the likes of Anthony Gordon and Jacob Murphy, and a focal point in the latest centre forward, Nick Woltemade who has made an impressive start on Tyneside.
Summer arrival Yoanne Wissa is fit at last and he can operate on the right flank while Barnes prefers to operate on the left and, once again, he was the man on the spot as he scored a brace in the FA Cup tie against Bournemouth and converted his shootout penalty with supreme cool. Barnes has been used as a super-sub at times but I believe he is the most consistent performer in this group, and the man for the big occasion.
With Sandro Tonali and Bruno Guimaraes in midfield there is plenty of supply for the wide men and attackers, and Barnes is a strong runner with superb ball skills.
He has to start for me.
Semenyo opens up the January market
Another player hoping to make some big EFL Cup 2026 highlights is the first big signing of the January transfer window, Ghana winger Antoine Semenyo. The 26 year old has signed a five-and-a-half-year contract at the Etihad and he has already opened his account, scoring in the FA Cup rout of Exeter, and he is eligible to play against Newcastle on Tuesday. Semenyo is already in sixth place in the race for the Premier League Golden Boot, with ten goals for Bournemouth, and he joins a glittering array of attacking talent with Cherki, Jeremy Doku and Phil Foden all potential match-winners alongside the most prolific striker in the league, Erling Haaland.
City are going well in the Champions League, beating Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu recently and they have certainly not given up on the Premier League, so Guardiola will need to rotate his squad and Semenyo is, without doubt, another stellar addition. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the former Cherries hero start on Tuesday.
History
Newcastle are the EFL Cup holders but Manchester City had a firm grip on the trophy between 2018 and 2021 when they picked up four on the run to make it eight in total.
With 34 wins to ten the Sky Blues have had much the better of the head to head results against Newcastle, and at St James Park they are ahead by 14 to eight. But the Magpies have won two out of the three Carabao Cup encounters; and when the two teams met in the league in November the Geordies stunned City with a 2-1 win as Barnes scored twice.
With three wins, two draws and one defeat the Magpies are gathering momentum, while the Sky Blues are in good shape too, with four wins and two draws.
Betting Tip
With Newcastle at SBOTOP odds of 2.95 and the Draw at 3.40, all three results are in play with the most likely score line a 1-1 draw at a price of 7.00. But my money is with City who have a deeper squad and certainly had an easier weekend.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:
⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT)
⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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