UEFA Nations League: Split Soiree Offers Time for Reflection

Croatia vs Portugal

The final group game in the UEFA Nations League for both these international sides is actually a bit of ‘dead rubber’.

Certainly, Portugal have only pride to play for in Split on Monday night, knowing they have topped the group and cannot be caught whatever happens.

For Croatia, there is still a chance they could be overtaken in second place by Scotland – the team they lost to on Friday night – but they also know a point will book them a spot in next year’s quarter-finals.

It is, therefore, an occasion where some of the pressure is off and perhaps both countries can reflect on 2024 and, more importantly, what comes next.

 

Talking Points 

Just like the calendar year has been a lot more favourable for Portugal than Croatia, dare I say the future looks a lot brighter in the same direction too.

With their midfield magician Luka Modric surely only a matter of months away from retiring from the international scene, the road back for the east Europeans seems slightly more of an uphill task.

Yet they have plenty of reasons to be optimistic.

Manager Zlatko Dalic have a growing fondness for UEFA’s newest international tournament and the 2023 runners-up are not exactly in a poor place with one game to spare – three points ahead of both the Scots and Poland.

In fact, their first trip to Hampden Park since 2013 on Friday may have ended in defeat but they were the better team until Petar Sucic’s rashness left them playing for over an hour with 10 men.

Scotland capitalised leaving Croatia visibly sore that such effort, and first half control, proved in vain.

Dalic’s boys are looking to put their disappointing group stage exit at Euro 2024 behind them so Nations League highlights seem the obvious way to do just that.

They may also come across opponents struggling to motivate themselves for the occasion, now their place in the quarter-finals is secure.

Portugal were impressive in their 5-1 romp against Poland, capped by a Cristiano Ronaldo overhead kick in Porto.

It was a contest in which Bruno Fernandes and his former Manchester United teammate both got in the scoresheet during a second-half flurry, added to earlier goals from Rafael Leao, a Ronaldo penalty and Pedro Neto.

The 39 year-old has now scored five goals in Portugal’s five matches in their Nations League campaign and is top scorer in League A of the competition.

He also now has the most victories in international football history (132), ahead of former team-mates Sergio Ramos (131) and Iker Casillas (121).

Manager Roberto Martinez has actually allowed Ronaldo, Bernardo Silva, Neto and Fernandes – who was facing a one match suspension anyway – to head back to their clubs early, a huge boost for Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea so expect a slightly weaker Portugal starting XI.

Croatia will be without Sucic but can welcome back, Ante Budimir and first-choice goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic from bans of their own which will increase their hopes.

Kristijan Jakic came off with an injury in the closing stages of their match with Scotland and may be replaced at right-back by Marin Pongracic.

Either way, with the side which needs to get a good result being strengthened, and the team for whom the result is secondary actually weakened, the portents are good for the hosts.

 

History

Portugal are unbeaten in seven of their last eight matches against Croatia. Last month in the Nations League they ran out 2-1 winners when Diogo Dalot and the irrepressible record breaker Ronaldo scored.

Twenty three goals have been scored in the last eight match-ups between the sides and both nations have scored in six of the last seven meetings.

This will be their third clash in 2024 as Croatia won a friendly in June, just before Euro 2024, when Modric (penalty) and Budimir were on target. Diogo Jota replied for the home side. It remains the only time they have beaten the Portuguese.

The most important of those have come in the European Championships, including their very first meeting at the group stages in 1996 when Luis Figo, Joao Pinto and Domingos scored the goals in a 3-0 win in Nottingham.

They also met at Euro 2016 in the last 16 when two teams packed with outstanding talent failed to live up to their pedigree.

It is thought to have been the first game in the tournament’s history when neither side mustered a shot on target in the 90 minutes.

However, on the night that Nani made his 100th appearance for his country, Portugal reached the quarter-finals of a tournament they would go onto triumph in, courtesy of a Ricardo Quaresma goal in the 117^th minute.

 

Betting Tip 

Given everything I’ve outlined above, I think the home team will edge this and my tip with the SBOTOP Nations League betting odds is a ** one of Croatia 1X2 @ 2.72.

   

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