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Champions League: Bayern or Bust – Bavarians in Last Chance Saloon

Bayern Munich vs Lazio

Let’s not beat about the bush when it comes to the importance of this Champions League last-16 tie for both clubs.

For Lazio, a return to this competition via their Serie A form is looking like a big ask so they will probably need to be crowned kings of Europe if they are to dine at the top tier next term.

For Bayern, playing in Europe’s top tier is almost a given (it’s 29 years since they last finished outside the top four of their domestic league) but, considering they are well adrift in second place in the Bundesliga, this represents their only chance of silverware this season.

While Lazio are still in the Coppa Italia (they play Juventus in next month’s semi-finals), Bayern were dumped out of the German Cup last November by third division side FC Saarbrucken and are not accustomed to ending campaigns empty-handed.

So, there you have it: a tie between two clubs who could do with a boost and, in the case of the Bavarians, require a victory to save their season.


Talking Points

Both clubs hardly come into the contest in good spirits.

On Friday night, Lazio ended with eight men as they went down to their third defeat in four outings since their first leg 1-0 victory.

The Rome outfit looked to have held on for a point against AC Milan after Luca Pellegrini saw red but Noah Okafor struck late on before Adam Marušić and Matteo Guendouzi were dismissed in separate incidents.

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On the same night, Bayern suffered another domestic setback as they conceded a late equaliser against Freiburg in a 2-2 draw.

Thomas Tuchel, who is leaving at the end of the season, is trying to help Bayern claim a 12th successive Bundesliga title but they are well off the pace behind leaders Bayer Leverkusen.

Trailing 1-0 from last month’s first leg, all the pressure is on the Germans ahead of Tuesday.

Ciro Immobile scored a 69th minute penalty to secure first leg victory as Bayern finished with 10 men.

Immobile converted his spot-kick after the Bayern defender Dayot Upamecano’s clumsy challenge on Gustav Isaksen for which the France international was sent off with a straight red card.

That means he will miss the second leg.

Tuchel will also be without Sacha Boey (hamstring) and there are doubts over whether winger Serge Gnabry will be fit to return.

Kingsley Coman – the matchwinner in the 2020 Champions League Final – has already been ruled out with a ligament tear so Bayern will hope Leroy Sane can pass a fitness test.

Lazio head to the Allianz Arena without the services of centre back Patric and midfielder Nico Rovella who has a groin strain.

The Italians will not make it easy but Bayern, who have not lost a home match in this competition since 2020/21 (won 10, drawn three) and have made it to the quarter-finals in 11 of the last 12 campaigns, surely have some Champions League highlights in the bag to continue that record.


History

Ciro Immobile scored on the first leg of Lazio's round of 16 Champions League tie against Bayern Munich
Ciro Immobile in action during Lazio’s match against Bayern Munich at Stadio Olimpico

Bayern and Lazio had never faced each until this stage of the competitor in 2021.

Bayern emerged victorious in both legs of that tie.

On that occasion, Robert Lewandowski steered home the opener before Leon Goretzka supplied Jamal Musiala for Bayern’s second which the then 17 year-old drilled low into the bottom corner.

Sane poked in Bayern’s third and there was an own goal early in the second half with Joaquín Correa netting a consolation for the Italians.

Bayern sealed a 6-2 aggregate win with a 2-1 home in in the second leg as Lewandowski and Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting were on target with Marco Parolo replying for the visitors.

They were their only two previous meetings until last month’s first leg.


Betting Tip

The SBOTOP Champions League betting odds expect Bayern to prevail and so do I.

A home win is on offer 1X2 @ 1.24, Asian Handicap -1.75 @ 2.05 and -2.00 @ 2.33 compared to Lazio 1X2 @ 8.50 and Asian Handicap +1.50 @ 2.14.

If you think there’ll be plenty of goals in this one, then how about Over 3.25 @ 2.29, Total Goal 0-1 @ 4.59, 2-3 @ 2.05 and 4-6 @ 2.69.

The draw can be backed @ 5.20, while a re-run of their only other meeting in Germany is available @ 9.00 with Correct Score 2-1.

I am not going for that but I am going to tip Bayern to overturn their first leg deficit by winning this game and the tie.

A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:

⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)

⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT))

⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)

Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.


 

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