Will Familiarity Breed Contempt as Road to Euro 2024 Begins with Final Re-Run?

Italy vs England

It’s a little over 20 months since the European Champions were crowned at Wembley.

It was a night gripped with emotion, tension and drama and went the full distance as Italy broke English hearts at a raucous Wembley.

Since then, of course, the nations have experienced mixed fortunes as the Italians even failed to qualify for the recent World Cup, a tournament in which England reached the quarter-finals.

They also met last summer in the Nations League but the contest was quite the opposite of the final – akin to a friendly in the middle of June which neither really wanted after an already arduous season.

Now, conversely, they meet in a repeat of the final in the opening qualifier for the next European Championships – Euro 2024!

So, what can we expect?

Talking Points

Well, Euro 2024 highlights one suspects, although given that two nations from the group will qualify for next summer’s tournament, it seems highly unlikely that the top two from the delayed Euro 2020 will not make it.

With respect to Ukraine (ranked 26^th), who almost made it to Qatar, Malta (167^th) and North Macedonia (65^th), all the other nations should be overcome with the minimum amount of fuss by countries paired ranked fifth and eighth in the world respectively.

This Group C encounter may actually provide us an insight into how both nations are developing.

As England prepare to travel, they have had some key men withdraw.

Manchester United sharp-shooter Marcus Rashford, goalkeeper Nick Pope and Chelsea’s Mason Mount have all withdrawn from Gareth Southgate’s squad who travel to Naples for Thursday’s encounter before hosting Ukraine at Wembley on Sunday.

He has been able to welcome Chelsea duo Reece James and Ben Chilwell from injury though, with Ivan Toney of Brentford and Crystal Palace’s Marc Guehi hoping for game time.  

The Italians have had their own chopping n’ changing with goalkeeper Ivan Provedel forced to withdraw, prompting a call up for Cremonese’s Marco Carnesecchi.

The 29 year-old Lazio goalkeeper has been a key figure this season with 16 clean sheets in 27 Serie A matches, earning him a spot in the Azzurri squad.

Meanwhile, manager Roberto Mancini has also called up West Ham defender Emerson Palmieri to replace the injured Federico Dimarco.

Italy trained at Coverciano on Monday without Dimarco and Federico Chiesa, the Juventus winger sustaining an injury against Inter Milan on Sunday night.

He won’t be replaced, despite his loss being even more keenly felt in the absence of Dimarco and Ciro Immobile.

Mancini has included three uncapped players in his squad with Wladamir Falcone, Alessandro Buongiorno and Mateo Retegui all hoping to feature.

History

The teams have faced each other 30 times, the Azzurri winning 13 to England’s eight, with nine draws.

Italy failed to win any of their first eight meetings; England have managed a solitary win in the last 10.

England have actually suffered tournament-ending losses in all three of their encounters in European Championships. As well as the 2021 final, Marco Tardelli’s late goal earned the Azzurri a 1-0 win in the 1980 group stage, while Italy prevailed on penalties (remember Andrea Pirlo’s Panenka!) in the quarter-finals of Euro 2012.

Italy have never lost to England at a major finals with 2-1 World Cup victories in 1990 (third-place play-off) and 2014 (group stage) on top of those Euro triumphs.

Their most recent meeting, in September in the Nations League, saw a Giacomo Raspadori goal separate the sides – again a match which may have seen the Three Lions relegated from their group but it was of limited importance given the World Cup was on the horizon.

Betting Tip

England travel to the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona looking to beat Italy for the first time since a 2012 friendly.

Given the Azzurri’s home advantage, not to mention the psychological advantage thanks to their decade of superiority , I do not think they will secure victory but I don’t think they will lose either.

The SBOTOP Euro 2024 betting odds actually make England slight favourites and they can be backed 1X2 @ 2.36 with the hosts on offer @ 2.70.

Asian Handicap odds are also close to call, including Italy -0.25 @ 2.40 and England -0.25 @ 2.25.

A repeat of their match in Milan six months ago is available @ 6.80 with Correct Score.

All in all, I expect a few goals – though not too many – so over 2.50 @ 2.31 caught my eye.

My *** tip, however, is 1X2 draw @ 3.05 as both nations take something from their qualifying opener.

 

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