Bundesliga: Koln Clash is a Must-Win for Berlin

Union Berlin vs Koln

High flying Union Berlin aim to get back to winning ways this weekend when they host mid-table Koln at the Stadion An der Alten Forsterei on Saturday.

Die Eisernen have been the surprise package in the German top flight this season, in just their fourth campaign among the elite they have been challenging at the top and thriving in the Europa League. But a defeat to Bayern last week means Union have fallen three points off the pace and they are looking nervously over their shoulders as the race for the top four spots heats up.

It’s beginning to look like the Bundesliga title will be a shootout between champions FC Bayern and perennial challengers Borussia Dortmund. The gap to Union in third is only one victory, but below the Berlin club sit Red Bull Leipzig, menacingly just a point behind, and Freiburg are on the charge, one more point back in third place.

So this is a game Union really need to win or they could see their grip on a Champions League place loosening. And it won’t be an easy task against a Koln side which, despite coming into the game on the back of a 2-0 defeat at home to Wolfsburg, has proven it can upset the odds.

Talking Points

Berlin can brush off the Bayern Blizzard

90 brutal minutes in a snowstorm in Munich left Union Berlin bruised and battered as goals from Eric Choupo-Moting, Kingsley Coman and Jamal Musiala blew the Eisernen away. Windswept defender Robin Knoche said, ‘we had no chance’ and he was right as keeper Frederik Ronnow put in a man of the match performance to keep the score respectable. The heroic stopper even saved one shot with his face!

Bayern boss Julian Nagelsmann was generous in his appraisal, saying that Union’s busy schedule, including an impressive win over Ajax during the week made it harder for them: “I think Thursday’s game was still in the Union players’ legs” he said. “Usually their biggest strength is quick transition in attack.”

Union head coach Urs Fischer admitted his team were not at the races and he was right, as they had less than 30 percent possession, and lost the shot counts by 20 to three and nine to nil on target.

It was just about as bad as it can get.

But they can put the nightmare in Munich behind them. Koln coach Steffen Baumgart will have watched the video of Union’s match with Bayern last week, countless times, but he won’t have learned much because it was so out of character.

Die Eisernen have had a week to recover and Koln can expect a backlash. Suriname striker Sheraldo Becker, with seven goals, is top scoring and attacking midfielder

Janik Haberer is another man to watch as we expect Union to dominate and make up for last week’s no show.

The Bundesliga 2023 betting odds rate Union Berlin as fourth favourites for the title and that top four place is still in their sights; a win on Saturday will get them back on track.

Koln is a tough nut to crack

Baumgart is in charge of Koln for his second season having led them to a seventh place finish last term and while Die Geissbocke have been less consistent this season, currently sitting in 12^th place and seven points above the relegation zone, they are still capable of living with the best.

Just over a month ago Koln played out a 1-1 draw with FC Bayern and followed that up with three clean sheets, including one against RB Leipzig and a 3-0 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt. Recent reversals against Stuttgart and Wolfsburg have stopped them in their tracks but there is no way Union Berlin will underestimate this task.

Skippered by left back Jonas Hector, who has been at the club since 2012, Koln have a robust defensive and midfield unit but are without a prolific striker, Steffen Tigges and Florian Kainz top scoring with five goals.

History

Union Berlin have had the better of the head to head encounters with eight wins to five, and there have been two draws from the 15 games played over the past 20 years

Union won in Cologne 1-0 in September and they come into the game in better form with three wins, two draws and one defeat, while Koln have had one win, two draws and three defeats over that time.

And Union’s home record has been brilliant with seven wins and three draws while Koln are 1-5-5- away from home.

Betting Tip

At SBOTOP odds of 3.40 to win Koln are certainly in the game but, despite the loss to Bayern, Union Berlin’s Bundesliga 2023 results have been far superior and they are genuine Champions League contenders.

1-0 is the most likely score-line at a price of 5.03, and I expect Berlin to finish the weekend in the top three.

 

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