Chelsea vs Atletico Madrid
I doubt either manager would ever admit it but, to my reckoning, this Champions League encounter is far more important for one club than the other.
How can that be you may ask when the financial lure of the competition -especially during a pandemic – is as highly attractive to club owners as success on the pitch is to players and managers.
Well, the deduction is a simple one.
Take Chelsea and new boss Thomas Tuchel – a runner-up with Paris St Germain in the tournament last season.
Currently, in fourth place in the Premier League following an entertaining draw at Leeds United on Saturday, he will feel European competition is a priority for his new employers this term.
Not so Atletico Madrid who are top of La Liga and must make the title race – and the chance of a first title success since 2014 – their number one target.
After all, it’s not every season you get the chance to see off both Spanish giants Real Madrid and Barcelona, yet that is what Diego Simeone is trying to mastermind this term and with a realistic prospect to date.
They have felt the pressure lately, however, as shown again at the weekend when they dropped points at Getafe.
Like I said, Simeone and his players will not admit it – they may not even agree – but I think they may well benefit from a Champions League exit so they can focus fully on the title race.
Talking Points
It’s ironic that when the draw for this tie was made before Christmas, Atletico were overwhelming favourites.
Fast forward three months and the tables have turned.
Since Tuchel took over in late January, Chelsea have not lost a single match, winning eight and drawing four of their 12 games.
They also have a strength in depth, despite some absentees this week.
Mason Mount and Jorginho are both banned due to yellow cards picked up in the first leg, while Tammy Abraham and veteran centre back Thiago Silva are likely to be out due to injuries.
Silva had recently worked his way back from a thigh problem to make the substitutes bench, but the Brazilian then suffered a setback in training and remains a doubt.
Atletico generally seem at full strength, but they are struggling for form with just two wins in their last seven in all competitions.
Their attack will be headed by Luis Suarez although, for all the plaudits he’s received, it should be remembered he hasn’t scored in an away game in the Champions League since September 2015.
An early away goal could turn the tie on its head, an early home goal would put Chelsea firmly in the driving seat.
Either way, I would suggest the key question is: who wants this the most?
For me, that is Chelsea.
History
These sides have met eight times in their history – all since 2009.
That first contest was in the group stages of the competition when Chelsea ran out 4-0 winners at Stamford Bridge as Salomon Kalou netted twice and was joined on the scoresheet by Frank Lampard (and an own goal). That defeat actually prompted the departure of then Atlético coach Abel Resino with future Watford boss Quique Sánchez Flores taking over.
The return game in Madrid a few weeks later ended 2-2 and was a thriller as Sergio Aguero and Didier Drogba both grabbed doubles.
Their most important clashes, however, have both gone the way of Atletico.
A lightning first-half hat-trick from Radamel Falcao – who later had a season on loan at Chelsea – saw them blow away the West Londoners in the final of the 2012 UEFA Super Cup.
Two years later, Atletico won 3-1 at Stamford Bridge in the semi-finals of the Champions League following a goalless draw in Spain. The scorer of Atletico’s second that night was Diego Costa who moved to Chelsea that summer.
Overall, Chelsea have three triumphs, Atletico two and there have been a further three draws.
Of course, Chelsea won the recent clash a fortnight ago when some Olivier Giroud magic earned a 1-0 first leg success.
Betting Tip
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Chelsea vs Atletico Madrid | Under 2.25 @ 1.84 |
| March 18, 04:00 (GMT+8) |
With Atletico’s focus firmly on La Liga, I expect Chelsea to win this tie and so do the SBOTOP Champions League betting odds.
The home side can be backed 1X2 @ 2.21 with the same odds available with Asian Handicap -0.50.
If Atletico are to succeed, there are attractive odds of 1X2 @ 3.30 and Asian Handicap 0.00 @ 2.44.
The last time they met at Stamford Bridge was a 1-1 draw and a repeat is on offer @ 5.60 with Correct Score.
For two sides who can be resolute at the back, I do not expect too many goals.
My ** tip is under 2.25 goals @ 1.84.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR ( ) BETS ARE WORTH: |
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 = €20 (Highly confident) |
= €10 (CONFIDENT) |
= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT) |
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Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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